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2 January 2026
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The lessons from 22 years in the market include the lower volatility of industrial shares, how a short book differs from a long, the best leading indicators of change, plus stocks to withstand tougher times.
Some conglomerates include hidden assets that the market is not valuing properly. It may take a demerger to show their worth and there are good reasons why these work. How do investors identify the best demergers?
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
This week, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg told Australia companies to invest in growth rather than return capital or buy back their own shares. There are other reasons to check the merit of buy backs.
Exogenous factors like macro changes and weather can affect a company’s short-term profits. Management often blames uncontrollable factors for earnings downgrades but rarely owns up to a fortuitous tailwind.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Much has been made of how US markets, especially the NASDAQ, have significantly outperformed the ASX over the past two decades. History suggests the pendulum will swing back once again in Australia's favour.
What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? It's time to select the winner.
What is progress? Is it GDP growth? Increasing wealth? New and improving technology? This argues that our measure of progress has become warped, and we're heading backwards rather than forwards.
Summer is a great time to catch up on a good book. Here is a list of books on leadership, investing, and well-being for those looking to learn, reflect, and gain inspiration over the holiday season.