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Monday, 10 August 2020
Recently trending A hard dose reality check on vaccinesAfter 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this partyAustralian house prices: Part 2, the bigger picture How we have invested during COVID-19Australian house prices: Part 1, how worried should we be?
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It is better to miss a results bounce and buy after the company has delivered than it is to step on a landmine. With such uncertainty, avoid FOMO by following these result season investing tips.
Markets always come back to fundamentals, valuations and liquidity, even when faced with a global pandemic. The key question is whether liquidity can hold up the market as the economic storm hits.
While Australian businesses generally achieve returns below global comparisons, our Best 50 have delivered results well above the accepted world best practice level, and they come from a diversity of industries.
In many valuations, the ‘Golden Rule’ is being broken. Earnings growth is assuming the sort of strong economic activity that would trigger higher interest rates, yet investors are delinking the two.
Investors chasing high yielding stocks without considering the fundamentals risk falling into the 'income trap', where weak businesses are eventually forced to reduce their dividends.
An investor’s fundamental investment process should be adapted to take account of the psychology and emotion involved in making such decisions, including a disciplined approach to entering and exiting positions.
With 160 programmes underway and billions of dollars spent on COVID-19 vaccines, investors are drawn to optimistic news. However, the company that has developed most new vaccines has a sober view.
Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.
There is good reason to believe the negatives will continue to outweigh the positives over the next 12 to 18 months. There is more concern about house prices than the short-term indicators suggest.
With signs that the economic recession will not be as deep as first feared, many companies will emerge strongly with robust business models. Here are the sectors with the best opportunities.
Three key indicators are useful for predicting the short-term outlook for house prices, although tighter lockdowns make the outlook gloomier. There is enough doubt to create cause for concern.