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Monday, 25 May 2020
Recently trending Buffett's meeting takeaway: extreme cautionWelcome to Firstlinks Edition 356The vibe of future returns: tell ‘em they’re dreamin’Baseline outlook for economic recovery is too optimistic Retiree spending patterns differ from most expectations
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Despite the unknowns, Australia is vulnerable as a medium-sized open economy dependent on smoothly functioning international trade. It was already under stress before the onset of the crisis.
As Australia prepares to relax Covid-19 lockdown restrictions, crucial questions of lives versus livelihoods are being asked. At its most pointed, it's also a matter of lives versus lives.
In a widely-quoted scenario using estimated attack and fatality rates of coronavirus, about 0.07% of the population of the US dies. That's about 230,000 people, which the market is not ready for.
Rob Arnott is a leading researcher, fund manager and academic often quoted in US media. We chatted at a moment in time when President Trump must make some critical calls on coronavirus.
The Australian market bounced back last Friday (13th) and Monday (16th) tempting analysts to call the bottom of the coronavirus scare. This is too early as the impact on companies is not yet evident.
High debt, wealth inequality, increasing automation, ageing population, and climate change are among the most significant structural headwinds the global economy faces today. What could this mean for equity investors?
Most commentators believe there is a positive correlation between economic growth and share market performance. The data disproves this, at a world and country level and over time.
The US Fed has finally lifted interest rates as anticipated, but from here it's especially difficult to predict future rate changes given that current economic conditions would normally dictate lowering rates.
The Australian economy faces many challenges from both global and domestic influences, and while opportunities exist for Australian businesses and investors, it's a time for caution.
This period of ultra low interest rates and government-stimulated economies has created an overly optimistic view of world economic growth, which will have implications for future retirement savings returns.
Looking at the success and domination of Amazon, Google and Apple makes you wonder if the wealth management industry could experience the same type of market disruption as other industries have.
Warren Buffett's annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway showed he has not been 'investing while others are fearful' during the crisis. lt's a reminder to take caution and preserve cash.
Few investors are as influential as Warren Buffett, although for the moment, the market is ignoring his caution. The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway revealed Buffett did not use the heavy market falls in February to buy shares. Rather than 'buy when others are fearful', he was a net seller of US$6 billion for the quarter, disposing of all airline shares. Berkshire is sitting on US$137 billion in cash, suggesting he expects better buying opportunities to come.
It's the vibe, but not much else. Super balance calculations default to earnings rates of 7.5%, but that's in the past. Global experts suggest financial plans are now dreaming at this level.
We cannot throw our hands up in the air and say 'this time around, it's simply too hard'. Having no macro view is unhelpful, but many of the baseline scenarios are overly optimistic, says the former CEO of Westpac and now Chairman of Chi-X Australia.
A study of actual spending habits shows retirees have a faster-than-expected drop-off in spending in later years, casting doubts on financial plans that assume increasing expenditure over time.
There is a remarkable concentration similarity between the Australian and US stock markets that has delivered poor results for Australians and great results for Americans (and global investors). As the share prices of five Australian banks have tanked, the prices of five US technology companies have surged. Each group now represents 20% of their respective indexes, but the journey has been a disaster for many Australians.