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Global Economy

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Lessons from 100 years of growing US debt

As the US debt ceiling looms, the usual warnings about a potential crash in bond and equity markets have started to appear. Investors can take confidence from history but should keep an eye on two main indicators.

REITs: a haven in a Trumpian world?

Equity markets have been lashed by Trump's tariff policies, yet REITs have outperformed. Not only are they largely unaffected by tariffs, but they offer a unique combination of growth, sound fundamentals, and value.

100 years of tariff lessons

The global economy faces renewed protectionism with President Trump's tariffs sparking retaliatory actions and causing market volatility. Historically, quality companies have shown resilience amid trade tensions and uncertainty. 

Why a deflationary shock is near

Strategist Russell Napier says central banks have lifted interest rates too far and a deflationary shock is coming. He believes Governments will react radically and investors should avoid bonds and US stocks, and own more gold.

Why investors will continue to pay up for the US market and Mag 7

Recent volatility has reflected nervousness about tech stocks in the US and whether they can deliver returns on massive AI investment. With rates set to fall, these stocks and the broader US market should continue to find favour.

A struggling US dollar bodes well for markets outside America

Powerful tailwinds are forming behind certain areas of global equity markets that previously spent many years in the wilderness. Chief among them are stockmarkets in Europe and Japan, which have surged in recent months.

Reshoring supply chains: What does it mean for investors?

Perhaps the most consequential lesson from the pandemic for companies is that relying on single links in the global supply chain is a mistake. Here's how businesses are adjusting and the implications for investors.

How likely is a US recession? About 75%

The odds favour a US recession, albeit a mild one. If Australia can manage an orderly reduction of household debt, then it will give the RBA more flexibility to increase interest rates and bring them in line with US rates.

Pivoting from high inflation to global recession

For the world’s central banks, the second half of 2022 has been dominated by addressing ‘today’s problem’ of high inflation. In 2023, the banks will switch focus to 'tomorrow's problem': global growth and unemployment.

What a global tech arms race means for investors

A global technology arms race between the US and China is heating up. We examine what's happening now and whats likely to happen in future. As well as the risks and opportunities for investors from this crisis.

Two companies well-positioned amid supply chain disruption

Supply chain pressures highlight the important role and economic value created by companies working to make our infrastructure more efficient. We review two logistics companies that are well positioned to perform.

What’s the truth about stagflation?

Stagflation occurs when economic growth slows (stagnation) and prices rise (inflation), and while this scenario has been evident for a while now, is it really the same as the last time, over 40 years ago?

Most viewed in recent weeks

Maybe it’s time to consider taxing the family home

Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 625 with weekend update

Is it better to live rich or die rich? While many of us were raised to believe that preserving wealth for the next generation is the ultimate goal, a recent gathering I attended hinted that this mindset may be shifting.

  • 21 August 2025

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