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Global Economy

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The coiled spring: markets are primed for the year ahead

Bull markets tend to follow their own momentum until they hit a clear opposing force. The economy is like a spring about to be uncoiled with the most obvious restraint on the horizon is the return of inflation.    

The green lining of COVID-19: a time for change

With historic falls in greenhouse gas emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, we have a unique opportunity to construct a recovery that ensures a stronger economy while minimising carbon emissions.

A hard dose reality check on vaccines

With 160 programmes underway and billions of dollars spent on COVID-19 vaccines, investors are drawn to optimistic news. However, the company that has developed most new vaccines has a sober view.

How we have invested during COVID-19

With signs that the economic recession will not be as deep as first feared, many companies will emerge strongly with robust business models. Here are the sectors with the best opportunities.

Post Covid, the risks are skewed to the downside

Despite the unknowns, Australia is vulnerable as a medium-sized open economy dependent on smoothly functioning international trade. It was already under stress before the onset of the crisis.

Four ethical challenges in exiting Covid-19 rules

As Australia prepares to relax Covid-19 lockdown restrictions, crucial questions of lives versus livelihoods are being asked. At its most pointed, it's also a matter of lives versus lives.

What are the possible economic effects of COVID-19 on the world economy?

In a widely-quoted scenario using estimated attack and fatality rates of coronavirus, about 0.07% of the population of the US dies. That's about 230,000 people, which the market is not ready for.

Rob Arnott on flattening the virus curve, not the economy

Rob Arnott is a leading researcher, fund manager and academic often quoted in US media. We chatted at a moment in time when President Trump must make some critical calls on coronavirus.

Why we’re not buying the market yet

The Australian market bounced back last Friday (13th) and Monday (16th) tempting analysts to call the bottom of the coronavirus scare. This is too early as the impact on companies is not yet evident.

Five structural headwinds hitting the global economy

High debt, wealth inequality, increasing automation, ageing population, and climate change are among the most significant structural headwinds the global economy faces today. What could this mean for equity investors?

Benign economic growth but what about shares?

Most commentators believe there is a positive correlation between economic growth and share market performance. The data disproves this, at a world and country level and over time.

Global turmoil likely to make Fed patient

The US Fed has finally lifted interest rates as anticipated, but from here it's especially difficult to predict future rate changes given that current economic conditions would normally dictate lowering rates.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Noel's share winners and loser plus budget reality check

Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.

Grantham interview on the coming day of reckoning

Jeremy Grantham has seen it all before, with bubbles every 15 years or so. The higher you go, the longer and greater the fall. You can have a high-priced asset or a high-yielding asset, but not both at the same time.

Five stock recoveries not hanging on COVID predictions

The focus on predicting the recovery from the pandemic is the wrong emphasis. Better to identify great companies benefitting from market changes over a three- to five-year horizon with or without COVID.

BHP v Rio v Fortescue: it's all about the iron ore price

Don’t look at an earnings forecast or a DCF valuation or a broker target price for a mining company. Share price forecasts are only as good as the commodity price assumptions they are based on, and they are a guess.

Blink and you missed a seismic shift in these stocks

Blink and it happened. If announcements in this sector were made by a producer of iron ore, gas, copper or some new tech, the news would have been splashed across the front pages. Have we witnessed a major change?

Peak to peak, which LIC managers performed during COVID?

A comprehensive review of dozens of LICs shows how they performed in the crucial 'peak to peak' of COVID. This 14 months tested the mettle and strategies of a sector often under fire, with many strong results.

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