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10 March 2026
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Much of the economic commentary on the attack of the Ukraine has focused on oil. Peter Zeihan suggests that much of that discussion has failed to appreciate the pre-war decline of the Russian oil industry.
Among the myriad of numbers that bombard us every day, three prices matter greatly to the world economy. Recent changes in these prices help to understand the potential for a global recovery and interest rates.
At the moment, oil is the only energy source that can satisfy global demand, but low-carbon power is increasing supply and cost effectiveness. Will the oil price hold up while the fuel is gradually replaced?
Anyone considering investing in oil must understand it is a commodity with supply and demand features, and the relationship between spot and futures markets is critical to how an oil ETF is managed.
The oil market is as much about geopolitics as it is demand and supply, with regimes controlling much of the global production. Are negative oil prices part of a bigger plan by someone?
Long-term oil price projections and currency appreciation make the current valuations of many Australian companies look overly optimistic. Extra supply can be turned on quickly when prices start to rise.
US shale oil producers and the combined alliance of OPEC and Russia need one another to maintain the 'sweet spot' in oil sector dynamics and profitability into the future.
The so-called oil supply problem is the result of oil-producing countries deciding what to produce, but the market has relatively little spare capacity. There's a short-term power play underway by the lower-cost producers.
There's been much media attention on the negative aspects of oil price falls, but some of the benefits are doing more for the economy than the government stimulus package during the GFC.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.