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19 October 2025
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With the RBA having lifted interest rates by 4.25% over 18 months, many investors now see cash as an attractive investment option. That ignores the silent tax of inflation, which makes other assets better investment alternatives.
Real returns on equities and multi-asset portfolios are typically poor when inflation is high, especially in times of stagflation. Factor returns, on the other hand, are relatively insensitive to inflation cycles.
With inflation above 6%, the real value of term deposits is falling rapidly, and some retirees may be shocked how quickly they qualify for and rely on the age pension. Meanwhile, the outlook for dividends is good.
Since 1980, inflation eroded 81% of purchasing power. $100,000 then can now buy only $19,000 worth of goods and services. The longer money must last, the more we need ‘growth’ assets with inflation protection.
Faced with confusing complexity which often fails to improve investment outcomes, a former managing director set himself the task of writing a one-page introduction to investing for his 18-year-old grandkids.
Cash is a drag on portfolios when the stockmarket is strong but a welcome bulwark when the market sells off. Moving to cash is justified for the plausible scenario where the value of all other assets falls.
Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.
A comprehensive study of the impact of inflation on returns from different assets over the past 120 years. The high returns in recent years are due to low inflation and falling rates but this ‘sweet spot’ is ending.
Negative real yields have unmoored asset prices from fundamentals, but inflation pressures are likely to start pushing real yields higher. Higher real yields should feed into lower risk asset valuations.
What cost $1 in 1988 now costs $2.29 adjusted for inflation. We should make return calculations in real terms or we are deluding ourselves about investment performance over longer terms.
It's too easy to look at a long-term chart of rising share prices and be reassured about performance. But adjusted for inflation, many of our largest companies have gone nowhere in half a century.
Meeting real return objectives in a low growth environment is a challenge. Investors will need to use cyclical volatility to their advantage by riding the upside and, importantly, avoiding the falls.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
Retirement can be daunting for Australians facing financial uncertainty. Understand your goals, longevity challenges, inflation impacts, market risks, and components of retirement income with these crucial charts.
Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.
With rising home prices and falling affordability, political leaders preach reform. But asset disclosures show many are heavily invested in property - raising doubts about whose interests housing policy really protects.
Whether for yourself or a family member, it’s never too early to start thinking about aged care. This looks at the best ways to plan ahead, as well as the changes coming to aged care from November 1 this year.