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26 August 2025
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With the RBA having lifted interest rates by 4.25% over 18 months, many investors now see cash as an attractive investment option. That ignores the silent tax of inflation, which makes other assets better investment alternatives.
Real returns on equities and multi-asset portfolios are typically poor when inflation is high, especially in times of stagflation. Factor returns, on the other hand, are relatively insensitive to inflation cycles.
With inflation above 6%, the real value of term deposits is falling rapidly, and some retirees may be shocked how quickly they qualify for and rely on the age pension. Meanwhile, the outlook for dividends is good.
Since 1980, inflation eroded 81% of purchasing power. $100,000 then can now buy only $19,000 worth of goods and services. The longer money must last, the more we need ‘growth’ assets with inflation protection.
Faced with confusing complexity which often fails to improve investment outcomes, a former managing director set himself the task of writing a one-page introduction to investing for his 18-year-old grandkids.
Cash is a drag on portfolios when the stockmarket is strong but a welcome bulwark when the market sells off. Moving to cash is justified for the plausible scenario where the value of all other assets falls.
Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.
A comprehensive study of the impact of inflation on returns from different assets over the past 120 years. The high returns in recent years are due to low inflation and falling rates but this ‘sweet spot’ is ending.
Negative real yields have unmoored asset prices from fundamentals, but inflation pressures are likely to start pushing real yields higher. Higher real yields should feed into lower risk asset valuations.
What cost $1 in 1988 now costs $2.29 adjusted for inflation. We should make return calculations in real terms or we are deluding ourselves about investment performance over longer terms.
It's too easy to look at a long-term chart of rising share prices and be reassured about performance. But adjusted for inflation, many of our largest companies have gone nowhere in half a century.
Meeting real return objectives in a low growth environment is a challenge. Investors will need to use cyclical volatility to their advantage by riding the upside and, importantly, avoiding the falls.
Each generation believes its economic challenges were uniquely tough - but what does the data say? A closer look reveals a more nuanced, complex story behind the generational hardship debate.
Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.
The Labor government is talking up tax reform to lift Australia’s ailing economic growth. Before any changes are made, it’s important to know who pays tax, who owns assets, and how much people have in their super for retirement.
This goes through the different options including shares, property and business ownership and declares a winner, as well as outlining the mindset needed to earn enough to never have to work again.
Everyone has a theory as to why housing in Australia is so expensive. There are a lot of different factors at play, from skewed migration patterns to banking trends and housing's status as a national obsession.
China's steel production, equivalent to building one Sydney Harbour Bridge every 10 minutes, has driven Australia's economic growth. With China's slowdown, what does this mean for Australia's economy and investments?