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28 February 2026
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Inflation consistently undermines wealth, even in low-inflation environments. Whether or not it returns to target, investors must protect portfolios from its compounding impact on future living standards.
With the RBA having lifted interest rates by 4.25% over 18 months, many investors now see cash as an attractive investment option. That ignores the silent tax of inflation, which makes other assets better investment alternatives.
Real returns on equities and multi-asset portfolios are typically poor when inflation is high, especially in times of stagflation. Factor returns, on the other hand, are relatively insensitive to inflation cycles.
With inflation above 6%, the real value of term deposits is falling rapidly, and some retirees may be shocked how quickly they qualify for and rely on the age pension. Meanwhile, the outlook for dividends is good.
Since 1980, inflation eroded 81% of purchasing power. $100,000 then can now buy only $19,000 worth of goods and services. The longer money must last, the more we need ‘growth’ assets with inflation protection.
Faced with confusing complexity which often fails to improve investment outcomes, a former managing director set himself the task of writing a one-page introduction to investing for his 18-year-old grandkids.
Cash is a drag on portfolios when the stockmarket is strong but a welcome bulwark when the market sells off. Moving to cash is justified for the plausible scenario where the value of all other assets falls.
Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.
A comprehensive study of the impact of inflation on returns from different assets over the past 120 years. The high returns in recent years are due to low inflation and falling rates but this ‘sweet spot’ is ending.
Negative real yields have unmoored asset prices from fundamentals, but inflation pressures are likely to start pushing real yields higher. Higher real yields should feed into lower risk asset valuations.
What cost $1 in 1988 now costs $2.29 adjusted for inflation. We should make return calculations in real terms or we are deluding ourselves about investment performance over longer terms.
It's too easy to look at a long-term chart of rising share prices and be reassured about performance. But adjusted for inflation, many of our largest companies have gone nowhere in half a century.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.