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18 September 2025
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What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2024? It's time to select the winner.
Markets are partying like it's 1999, but history suggests that US earnings and economic growth are vulnerable following an interest rate tightening cycle. Investors should prepare their portfolios accordingly.
Key takeaways from this year include economic outlooks have limited usefulness in positioning portfolios, and there’s a difference between falling prices and cheap assets, and that difference matters a great deal.
What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2023? It's time to select the winner.
Brandywine Global's Richard Rauch warns of US and global recession risks, Vanguard's Duncan Burns on building a simple, effective investment portfolio, and Peter Warnes on the Australian market outlook for 2024.
It's impossible to predict when the next recession will happen. That said, looking at which types of investments have historically fared best during economic downturns can help you limit some of the damage.
Global equity markets face serious challenges, including expensive equity valuations, sticky inflation, high interest rates, and huge debt levels in most major economies. Recession seems probable, as does low equity returns.
Trillions need to be spent upgrading grids, transmission distribution and charging infrastructure. Electric utilities are a low-risk way to play this multi-decade growth theme to energy transition.
Macroeconomic indicators suggest that the US is in the last stage of the economic cycle with a recession likely by the end of 2023. There are five assets that can help insulate your portfolio if a downturn takes place.
The concentrated nature of 2023’s equities gains – driven by a handful of mega-cap technology and internet companies – hides signs of increasing vulnerability within markets. It's time to get defensive and buy quality stocks.
The 60/40 portfolio has performed poorly during the recent period of high inflation. With peak inflation likely behind us, here's a stock-take on the year so far and what it might imply for portfolios going forward.
Current stock market enthusiasm calls for caution, with rates now in restrictive territory and several indicators portending trouble ahead. There are some opportunities in areas that haven't been caught up in the market hype.
Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.
The creator of the 4% rule for retirement withdrawals, Bill Bengen, has written a new book outlining fresh strategies to outlive your money, including holding fewer stocks in early retirement before increasing allocations.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
Are franking credits factored into share prices? The data suggests they're probably not, and there are certain types of stocks that offer higher franking credits as well as the prospect for higher returns.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.