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Thursday, 28 October 2021
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The global recession came quickly and deeply but it has given way to a strong rebound. What are the lessons for investors, how should a portfolio change and what role will inflation play?
Buoyed by Australia’s response and emergence from the pandemic and recession, the negative short‑term economic costs and disruption do not detract from the longer‑term positive case for Australian equities.
It seems counterintuitive, but share prices rose during 17 (85%) of the 20 economic recessions in Australia in the past 150 years as markets tend to anticipate the bad times and recover early.
With central banks injecting as much liquidity as the market needs, the fundamental price signal has been lost. But the evidence is this does not help sustainable and long-term economic growth.
Italy is so weak economically, financially and politically that it poses an existential threat to the eurozone. Solutions to appease the crisis face political hurdles and a euro exit is possible.
The turning point in this crisis will be when the number of new COVID-19 cases starts to decrease. Until then, can we mitigate the damage to businesses and the economy so that we can snap back?
The Australian market bounced back last Friday (13th) and Monday (16th) tempting analysts to call the bottom of the coronavirus scare. This is too early as the impact on companies is not yet evident.
Nobody has a clue what is going to happen with the market. When deciding what to do with your stocks today, what matters is where the business and its intrinsic value may be 10 years down the line.
Quantum computers have a theoretical ability to calculate millions of possibilities in seconds, yet it may take time before we see a breakthrough in the practical applications of sub-atomic computing.
Our close links to China mean the impact of the virus could tip the local economy into recession and certain sectors such as resources, education and travel will be harder hit than others.
Prolonging a recovery with stimulus could lead to a worse slump later. Even today, policymakers are haunted by actions taken in 1937 which led to a loss of production and jobs and a falling GDP.
The market has been looking for inflation for most of the last decade. Low interest rates should increase consumption, borrowing and demand and result in higher prices. What killed inflation?
We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
The survey drew a fantastic 2,000 responses with over 1,000 comments and polar opposite views on what is good policy. Do most people believe the home should be in the age pension asset test, and what do they say?
Any policy decision needs to recognise who is affected by a change. It pays to check the data on who pays taxes, who owns assets and who earns the income to ensure an equitable and efficient outcome.
With articles on the pensions assets test read about 40,000 times, 3,500 survey responses and thousands of comments, there was a lot of great reader participation. A few comments added extra insights.
It is hard to think of any area of widespread public concern where the same policies have been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that they have failed to achieve their objectives.
There are reasons to believe inflation will stay under control, and although we may see a slowing in the global economy, two companies should benefit from the themes of 'Stable Compounders' and 'Structural Winners'.