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14 April 2026
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Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.
After a stellar 2025 to date for equities, warning signs - from speculative froth to stretched valuations - suggest the market’s calm may be masking deeper fragilities. Strategic rebalancing feels increasingly timely.
The Magnificent Seven stocks have driven indices to new highs, yet could face headwinds in the coming year. Challenges include their stretched valuations, inherent cyclicality, and high correlation to each other.
We are at a moment in the cycle for both bonds and stocks where investors are afraid to commit in case prices fall further, but they will not care about buying 200 points too soon when the market is 500 points higher.
The VIX as a measure of risk has a place in equity markets in interpreting market sentiment, but it is overly simplistic to think it can represent volatility in equities as a whole. Just what is it?
Most S&P500 companies are doing well with recent reported earnings above expectations. In the tech sector, the Big Five (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet) have also diversified their income sources.
The popular 'cyclically-adjusted' Shiller PE ratio is historically high and this is often quoted as a sign the market is overvalued, but consider the impact of the current low interest rates.
One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings.
Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.
The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.
An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.
The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.
With the upcoming budget increasingly likely to include bold proposals to alter the tax code I’ve outlined three incremental steps with fewer unintended consequences.