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Time Value Of Money

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We have trouble understanding the time value of money

We overvalue the present and underestimate the future - it’s a cognitive glitch called hyperbolic discounting. It affects savings, spending, and loans, and it's more common - and costly - than we think. 

Einstein's relativity theory and finance

Over 100 years ago, Albert Einstein published papers explaining his Theory of Relativity, which revolutionised physics and the world. Here are some musings on possible parallels between Einstein's theory and the world of finance.

What to do about our distorted relationship with money

We’re in a rare moment in history where the term premium has been negative for a number of years.  History suggests that won't last, and here are the best ways to position your portfolio to benefit from the change.

A one-page introduction to investing

Faced with confusing complexity which often fails to improve investment outcomes, a former managing director set himself the task of writing a one-page introduction to investing for his 18-year-old grandkids.

20k now or 50k later? What’s driving decisions to withdraw super?

The amount of retirement savings withdrawn under the Superannuation Early Release Scheme has surprised many. This comprehensive survey of thousands of Cbus members explains their motivations.

Depression or recovery? The risk of time

It is always easier to see the challenges and risks while underestimating ingenuity and positive possibilities. It's likely to be the case this time, too, as long as we move quickly to open economies.

Do investment principles stand test of time?

A comparison of superannuation investment strategy outcomes over two decades for three types of investors: a baby, a 20-year-old and a 40-year-old, shows the benefits of time and the value of compounding.

Dear friends, colleagues and fellow rockers

The affordability of seeing a movie, or cost of driving to the movie theatre, has not changed much over the 32 year period from 1981 to 2013. But the same cannot be said for ticket prices of concerts featuring aging rockers.

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Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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