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8 March 2026
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Less government involvement in the economy and markets is long overdue. But investors need to consider what a reduced government role may mean for the profitability of businesses that are unable to offset rising cost pressures.
They are six of the greatest businesses ever and should form part of the global portfolios of all investors. The market sees risk in inflation and valuations but the companies are positioned for outstanding growth.
If the world’s largest economy adopted a true MMT framework, the investment implications would be enormous. Economic growth would be materially greater but inflation and interest rates would also be much higher.
Biden is close but Republicans will likely hold the Senate. A split Congress has historically resulted in higher market returns. Investors should note that company earnings, not elections, drive the stock market.
If he wins, Joe Biden will enter office with a weak mandate relative to expectations due to the underperformance of his party, but the executive branch wields a great deal of power in the regulatory framework.
Over the long term it doesn’t matter who is the President as the US has thrived under different presidencies and parties. At least as important for Australia is the deterioration of our China relationship.
The US is days away from a presidential election with major repercussions for economic policy and investments in the US and the world. Views from First Sentier Investors and BNP Paribas Asset Management.
The recovery from COVID-19 is looking more like a K-shape, with some companies doing well while others struggle. The pandemic seems more akin to a black swan, exogenous shock than a structural downturn.
Trump or Biden? Our readers make a nailbiting call, while your predictions for the ASX300 over the long term show optimism while flat over the short term. The best insights come from the hundreds of revealing comments.
The deep financial, economic and political crises came to a head at the end of the 1970s when the US Government defaulted on its debt. It became the dawn of a brand new era of growth and prosperity for Americans.
The current US budget crisis will not be the first time its government has run out of money. Scary as this may sound to investors, the impact on markets of recent government shutdowns was different to what many expected.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.