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Saturday, 25 September 2021
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Drawing on experience as a bank analyst who studied the legislative process during the GFC, an internet analyst now has a unique insight into three key risks faced by Big Tech and implications for share prices.
The global tech run paused in September but the boom is driven by rising prices rather than actual profits. It will end when global confidence in the prospect of endless monetary and fiscal stimulus runs out.
There is an infinite variety of financial charts an investor can watch, with many spurious claims about factors and causality. But here are six common charts that are at historical extremes.
A new sponsor, Chi-X, shows how it follows long-term trends reinforced by COVID-19 to select US-listed companies accessible on local exchanges, often in sectors not served by Australian companies.
Many investors who hold offshore securities do not realise that much of the return comes from the FX hedge rather than the asset itself. And now US rates have risen, the benefit for Aussies has turned around.
Despite what the textbooks tell us, a world of more dominant players has not led to higher prices. How does this affect investing?
Investors are complacent and expect double-digit profit growth to continue for many years, but the market consensus for EPS growth is now in dangerous territory with more downside potential than upside.
Platinum's Kerr Neilson shares his insights into long term investing in global markets, especially the disruptive effects of technology and globalisation. And always with a focus on the price of a stock.
The claims that the leading tech companies are expensive overlooks the sustainable and growing earnings, plus they have new developments which have only scratched the surface.
Amazingly, Australian and US stock markets have delivered the same returns for their home country investors over the very long term. With the recent US strength, it's more likely to fall further in the next bust.
Since the 1900s, share market returns for US and Australian investors have been similar over the long run, but lately, US shares have outperformed with the current tech boom. How about +66% versus -2% since 2007.
It is widely believed that rising bond yields should be bad for share prices. But is this true in real life? The relationship between government bond yields and the price of shares is more complex than it first seems.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Critics of franking credits are missing the main point. The taxable income of shareholders/taxpayers must also include the company tax previously paid to the ATO before the dividend was distributed. It is fair.
The survey drew a fantastic 2,000 responses with over 1,000 comments and polar opposite views on what is good policy. Do most people believe the home should be in the age pension asset test, and what do they say?