Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

The great impasse

  •   VanEck
  •   6 April 2023
  •      
  •   

Highlights

Australia the sweetest spot 

  • We continue to expect the RBA to increase the cash rate by 25bps at today’s meeting, to 3.85%.  The labour market and inflation have slowed only modestly meaning additional tightening is still needed.
  • Australia will be the lucky country again – just. While Australia faces some significant risks, China’s policy shift away from COVID zero and the RBA getting a significant amount of tightening in before wages had a chance to take off both mean Australia could avoid a recession.
  • If China can pick up pace and Australia can skirt a property/credit implosion, the Australian dollar could do well, particularly against a sliding US dollar. An easing of China trade sanctions will be icing on the cake.
  • While the housing market and consumer sentiment have looked a little more stable of late, this is still the “phony war” as the impact of rising rates has yet to fully hit households, with more significant impacts likely to be felt from March onward.
  • The Australian consumer staples sector has outperformed its global counterparts by almost 3 per cent over the past quarter reflecting the resilience of the Aussie consumer in the face of 10 consecutive rate hikes.
  • When the RBA does pause rate increases we expect a broad rally. Consumer discretionary names like JB Hi-Fi should benefit as consumers have a bit more breathing room in their budgets.
  • We continue to think investors should focus on liquidity, focus on balance sheets and cash flow and avoid highly volatile and speculative assets. We continue to see support for gold.

Gold is being turbocharged

  • Gold has been playing beach ball under water held down by rising US real rates. But geopolitics, crypto uncertainty and financial fears are now turbo-charging it.
  • Geopolitics is a secular support for gold. The retreat of globalisation, the rise of aggressive blocs of nations and the weaponisation of banking and payment systems has seen a fracturing of the US dollar consensus. In turn, central bank gold purchases have been rising sharply.
  • Recent movements in yields have also been supportive of gold. In the previous three instances when the short end of the US curve fell from its peak, gold prices rose for a sustained period.
  • The market is ignoring the negative effect of sustained higher rates on the global financial system. Interest expense will become a significant problem as record levels of debt across the globe are impacted by higher rates. This increasing debt burden, combined with an economic slowdown and sticky, elevated inflation are supportive of gold prices in 2023 and longer term.

Emerging markets are thriving, not surviving

  • One of the bright spots on global markets over the past few weeks has been emerging markets bonds, particularly selected local-currency bonds, which is almost exhibiting signs that it’s a safe haven asset in the current market environment.
  • Emerging Markets generally have low debts and deficits, independent central banks solely focused on inflation, and benefit from China’s reopening and are well-supported commodity prices.
  • In a world running from unsafe finance to safe finance, EM banks are generally deposit funded, not loan-funded, and have high common equity-to-assets ratios.

Download the full paper

 

  •   6 April 2023
  •      
  •   

 

Leave a Comment:

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Warren Buffett's final lesson

I’ve long seen Buffett as a flawed genius: a great investor though a man with shortcomings. With his final letter to Berkshire shareholders, I reflect on how my views of Buffett have changed and the legacy he leaves.

13 ways to save money on your tax - legally

Thoughtful tax planning is a cornerstone of successful investing. This highlights 13 legal ways that you can reduce tax, preserve capital, and enhance long-term wealth across super, property, and shares.

The housing market is heading into choppy waters

With rates on hold and housing demand strong, lenders are pushing boundaries. As risky products return, borrowers should be cautious and not let clever marketing cloud their judgment.

Why it’s time to ditch the retirement journey

Retirement isn’t a clean financial arc. Income shocks, health costs and family pressures hit at random, exposing the limits of age-based planning and the myth of a predictable “retirement journey".

Australia's retirement system works brilliantly for some - but not all

The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement. 

Taking from the young, giving to the old

Despite soaring retiree wealth, public spending on older Australians continues to rise. The result: retirees now out-earn the young, exposing structural flaws in the tax system and challenges for fiscal sustainability.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

Howard Marks: AI is "terrifying" for jobs, and maybe markets too

The renowned investor says there’s no shortage of speculative investors chasing AI riches and there could be a lot of money lost in the process. His biggest warning goes to workers and the jobs which will be replaced by AI.

Property

The 3 biggest residential property myths

I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.

Retirement

Australia's retirement system works brilliantly for some - but not all

The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement. 

Retirement

Retirement affordability myths

Inflated retirement targets have driven people away from planning. This explores the gap between industry ideals and real savings, and why honest, achievable benchmarks matter. 

Retirement

Can you manage sequencing risk in retirement?

Sequencing risk can derail retirement, but you’re not powerless. Flexible withdrawals, investment choices and bucketing strategies can help retirees navigate unlucky markets and balance trade-offs.    

Retirement

Don’t rush to sell your home to fund aged care

Aged care rules have shifted. Selling the family home may no longer be the smartest option. This explains the capped means test, pension exemptions and new RAD exit fees reshaping the decision.

Shares

US market boom-bust cycles - where are we now?

This gives comprehensive data on more than 100 years of boom and bust cycles on the US stock market - how the market performed during these cycles, where the current AI uptick sits, and what the future may hold.

Property

A retail property niche offers a lot more upside

Retail real estate is outperforming as a cyclical upswing, robust demand and constrained supply drive renewed investor interest. This looks at the outlook and the continued rise of convenience assets. 

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.