Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

24 June 2026

Home / 351

Every bear is different

The COVID-19 bear market hit severely, with the 34% fall in the S&P500 from 19 February 2020 to 23 March 2020, making it the quickest collapse in history. A bear market is usually defined as a 20% fall in a market index, and in March 2020, this took only 20 days.

Compared with other bears, however, there are reasons this bear market could be shorter. There has already been a strong recovery, although clearly this could be a bear market rally.

This short article compares the latest falls with previous bear markets, noting the one thing they all have in common – they end.

Consider the following chart of bear markets in the Australian All Ords Accumulation Index. 

  • Every bear market is different in terms of its speed and duration of falls, and how long they last.
  • In a bear market, panic selling of assets turns mark-to-market, or paper losses, into real losses.
  • The nature of each bear market is determined by the initial shock that triggered them (demand or supply side) and the quality of the policy response (weak versus strong).
  • The COVID-19 bear market was triggered by a supply side shock that quickly escalated into a profound demand side shock as health policies saw activity ‘stop’ during the lockdown phase of managing the rate of infection.
  • The policy response to this biological shock has been swift, dynamic and comprehensive. Central banks are providing unbound liquidity and fiscal policy is helping economies ride through to when infection rates begin to fall or a vaccine is close.
  • The nature of the COVID-19 biological shock helps explain the speed and depth of fall in the Australian share market compared to other bear markets.
  • The vigorous policy response and finite nature of the event suggests that this bear market will have more of a ‘U’ shape and be shorter in duration than other bear markets.

All Ordinaries Accumulation Index (100=cycle peak) in previous bear markets 

Source: Janus Henderson, does not include the subsequent rise in the All Ords of about 15% to end March 2020.

 

Frank Uhlenbruch is an Investment Strategist in the Janus Henderson Australian Fixed Interest Team. This article is general information and does not consider the circumstances of any investor.

 

  •   1 April 2020
  •      
  •   

 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

Bear markets don't go paw-in-paw with recessions

Suddenly, the market cares if a company makes money (again)

Four stages of a typical bear market - but is this typical?

Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Noel Whittaker’s take on the budget

Marketed as a fix for inequality and housing affordability, the latest budget instead delivers a tangle of tax changes that leave everyday Australians worse off.

Australia has no death duties. Technically.

Australia may not levy formal death duties, but a growing web of tax measures is quietly shaping what wealth passes between generations. Now, the 2026 budget adds another layer.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 662 with weekend update

The debate over the budget is increasingly shaped by frustration and perceptions of unfairness, rather than clear-eyed assessment of policy outcomes.

How to minimise tax with a will

Inheritance tax implications in Australia may surprise some, as poor estate planning without proper wills or trusts can lead to costly tax bills and delays for beneficiaries.

Testamentary trusts post-budget: Estate planning, tax reform and the ‘death tax’ debate

Proposed Budget changes to taxation are casting new uncertainty over testamentary trusts, prompting closer scrutiny of estate planning structures and the real implications of reforms still taking shape.

Back to the future - Why indexing CGT is a good idea

A return to indexation of capital gains would be a fairer way to compensate households for the effects of inflation than the current discount. Importantly, it opens the door to future, broader reforms to stop the taxation of inflation.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

Choose your hedges wisely… and often

A new market regime is exposing the fragility of static hedges. With correlations shifting and safe havens flipping, investors must rethink diversification and adopt more adaptive tools to protect capital.

Investment strategies

Yields take centre stage again

The Australian credit landscape is shifting. Yields are rising, issuance is strong and spreads continue to tighten. Income is re‑emerging as the dominant driver of returns, though pockets of risk may be building beneath the surface.

Investment strategies

The grass is always greener: Rethinking Australian vs global equities

Australia's once‑dominant sharemarket is losing ground as others surge ahead, prompting investors to question home‑bias instincts. Meanwhile, the US market appears attractive. Is it time to revisit your global equity allocation?

Investment strategies

Stop asking if there's a stock market bubble. Ask this instead.

Markets continue to push onwards despite valuations looking stretched by historical standards. Bubble talk is rampant, however investors may be focusing on the wrong thing. The real story sits deeper than the headlines.

Taxation

The GST cannot stop inflation

Raising the GST when inflation jumps sounds clever on paper, until we examine how it may play out in practice. What is pitched as a simple inflation fix can lead to a sharp turn in the wrong direction for prices.

Shares

Why SpaceX is coming to your super fund

SpaceX’s blockbuster debut is grabbing headlines, but the real story for Australian investors is much quieter. Giant listings eventually filter into super funds and ETFs, subtly reshaping portfolios long before most realise.

Taxation

Is the government being honest with us about its business CGT changes?

The government’s assurances on small‑business concessions don’t withstand the scrutiny. Token carve‑outs and a lack of credible rationale for CGT changes may reshape how Australia rewards long‑term value creation. 

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.