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Should Australia follow Trump's new brand of capitalism?

You might not like the man or his personality, but I wonder whether a new brand of capitalism and a new brand of government are emerging that prioritise the greater good.

As I have said before, I believe capitalism is the best solution we currently have (socialism eventually runs out of other people’s money) but it has flaws and it can be improved. In Australia, we yearn for better healthcare, childcare, education, and aged care, but the current solution to affording these things is to tax civilians more and hope that immigration will lead to economic prosperity. 

We could afford a better society if we didn’t embed an economic model that privatises profits and socialises the losses. If, for example, the government or a sovereign wealth fund owned stakes in the businesses extracting Australia’s vast resource wealth, we might see a better quality of life for all Australians. 

It’s still capitalism, but with the ability to afford social good. Sure, private owners of the nation’s iron ore would have to take a haircut, but they’d still make billions. Whatever you think about Trump the man, and putting aside the arguments about the government picking winners and losers, I do wonder whether his administration’s recent investments in companies make sense. 

There’s no doubt developed nations face a reckoning. Mounting government debt (US$318 trillion at last count) has saved economies from recession and collapse, which, in turn, has provided the environment for companies to make trillions in profits.  In Western democracies, however, those profits have been privatised, but the debt remains on the government’s balance sheet.

In an era of mounting fiscal pressures and global competition, Western governments are now exploring unconventional tools to bolster national interests while addressing social needs.

The recent actions of the U.S. government under Donald Trump – acquiring equity stakes in major corporations – signal a potential shift toward a hybrid model of capitalism. If my understanding is correct, it combines private enterprise with public ownership, enabling governments to generate revenue for essential services such as healthcare, education, childcare, and aged care, without relying solely on higher taxes or immigration-driven growth.

Drawing on examples from the semiconductor, steel, and defence sectors, this model echoes sovereign wealth funds in other nations and offers a pathway to at least partially socialise profits from key industries, ensuring broader societal benefits.

How it works

At the heart of the strategy is the government’s direct investment in private companies, often in exchange for subsidies, grants, or regulatory approvals. A prime example is the U.S. acquisition of a nearly 10 per cent stake in Intel, converting unpaid construction grants from the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act – originally intended to promote domestic semiconductor manufacturing – into non-voting shares valued at around US$9 billion.

This made the US federal government Intel’s largest single shareholder. Similarly, the administration secured a “golden share” in U.S. Steel as a condition for approving its acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel, granting significant control over the company’s governance and operations.

In the chip industry, deals with Nvidia and AMD require them to hand over 15 per cent of revenue from artificial intelligence (AI) and advanced chip sales to China, while other semiconductor firms face similar demands for export licenses. Apple committed an additional US$100 billion in U.S. investments to avert tariffs, and law firms have been pressured to provide pro bono services to avoid legal pursuits.

Advocates and critics

Proponents argue that such stakes are not arbitrary but a calculated response to national security threats and economic vulnerabilities. What they’re saying is that by protecting critical industries like semiconductors – vital for everything from consumer electronics to military applications – the government ensures American competitiveness against rivals like China.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, described the Intel deal as a “down payment” on a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, akin to those in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and Gulf states, which invest in assets to generate long-term revenue. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has extended this logic to defence contractors like Lockheed Martin, and noted that if the government provides “fundamental value” through contracts (e.g., 97 per cent of Lockheed’s revenue), it deserves a share of the returns.

Dealmaker Trump has himself touted these as savvy deals, saying, “I will make deals like that for our country all day long,” and hinting at expansions to pharmaceuticals, rare earths mining, and beyond.

My contention is that the model might address a core flaw in traditional capitalism: the privatisation of profits amid socialised losses.

In resource-rich nations like Australia, where vast mineral wealth often enriches private owners while public services lag, a sovereign fund owning stakes in extraction companies could redirect dividends toward universal benefits.

Similarly, in the U.S., capturing equity from subsidised firms prevents taxpayer money from “disappearing into the ether,” as Hassett put it. The CHIPS Act alone spurred over US$200 billion in private investments and thousands of jobs.  Equity stakes ensure a “reasonable return” on these public outlays.

Perhaps understandably, Bernie Sanders, an avowed socialist, endorsed this, arguing that taxpayers deserve profits from government grants. For Western democracies facing aging populations and rising social costs, the model could fund improved quality of life – better healthcare and education – without burdensome taxes, fostering a more equitable society while preserving capitalist incentives. Private owners might face diluted shares, but as Trump noted, they’d “still make billions,” with the added stability of government backing.

Equally understandably, this shift has ignited fierce debate, particularly among conservatives who view it as a betrayal of free-market principles. Critics label it “socialism” or “state capitalism,” warning that government ownership of production means – echoing Rand Paul’s quip about Intel – erodes individual liberty. Senator Thom Tillis expressed discomfort, likening it to Soviet-era enterprises, while libertarian think tanks like the Cato Institute argue it injects politics into economic decisions, leading to inefficiencies and corruption. Economists such as Gregory Mankiw and Tad DeHaven caution that ad hoc interventions create uncertainty, deterring investors and suppressing the market forces essential for growth.

Of course, precedents exist. I recall the U.S. stakes in General Motors, Citigroup, and AIG during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Admittedly, those were emergency measures under Bush and Obama, not a blueprint for ongoing policy.

Internationally, while China and Russia routinely invest in domestic firms, and European democracies support strategic sectors like aerospace, critics fear this normalises cronyism, where deals favour political allies over merit. That’s something that would need oversight, and safeguards would need to be installed to prevent abuse.

A significant concern is the precedent for future administrations: a Democratic president might leverage stakes to enforce green policies or diversity mandates and it’s worth acknowledging that no leader, even a self-professed “genius businessman” like Trump, can expertly manage diverse industries.

It needs to be discussed in Australia

Ultimately, this new brand of capitalism – government as stakeholder – challenges our Western sensibilities, but it potentially offers a pragmatic evolution. By emulating successful sovereign funds, nations can harness private innovation for the public good, affording social protections to the less fortunate without stifling growth. As global pressures mount, from debt, supply chain disruptions and inequality, I wonder whether this model may prove necessary. Of course, whether it heralds a fairer society or risks authoritarian overreach remains to be seen, but the debate needs to be had here in Australia too.

 

Roger Montgomery is the Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management and an author at www.RogerMontgomery.com. This article is for general information only and does not consider the circumstances of any individual.

 

21 Comments
Goronwy
September 08, 2025

Government ownership even of minority stakes will lead to less innovation and less productivity. I agree that government grants with nothing in return are crazy. These funds should only ever be loaned. We want capitalists acting like capitalists. The Government pumping money into the economy in times of crises is justified, what has been lacking is a lack of will to take money out in good times. Ultimately that is down to us voters who love the handouts but hate paying for them.

JM
September 07, 2025

To me the concept is good, provided it makes commercial sense to both the government and the target company. The real problem is putting more "other people's money" into the hands of politicians with the inherent wasteful expenditure to follow. Look at NBN and NDIS!

margaret gillett
September 07, 2025

Roger
Yhe Australian government is already doing this with the various ailing smelters and critical minerals just not showy like USA whitehouse.
Remember it is a fine line between capitalism and socialism. France has been owning shares in French companies long before USA but their culture to date has kept the Le Pen option out.

Former Treasury policy maker
September 07, 2025

But the government divested Qantas and Telstra and CBA because ownership brings with it the need to provide capital to meet growth needs and to remain modern in competitive markets. That was going to require a lot MORE government debt and that was deemed unacceptable.

Governments already have the sovereign right to tax company profits, levy royalties, etc. Just use that power when required and economically justifiable, but leave the risks of managing the capital needs of balance sheets to the private sector.

Future Fund is different. They are portfolio managers with hundreds of exposures and dont have to cough up more tax payers funds when a company in which they have shares needs it.

Petet taylor
September 07, 2025

Re zoning land a grey gift to developers should be giving value back to the goverment

Steve
September 07, 2025

Can you imagine Chris Bowen having any say at all in where money gets invested? What a cluster.

Dudley
September 06, 2025


"normalises cronyism": as per Crony Capitalist Party.

Philip Rix
September 06, 2025

The govt already has a Future Fund that invests in companies - let’s not panic. The authors idea has merit and is worth rational discussion.

Philip Rix
September 06, 2025

We already have Australian Govt investing in private enterprises - it’s called a Future Fund.
The authors ideas have merit with appropriate guardrails.
I have no problems with Government investing - just not running the businesses!

George Hamor
September 05, 2025

My understanding is that Norway's sovereign wealth fund exists solely because of North Sea Oil, which then funds a large chunk of social services.
Why wouldn't the government buy a chunk of BHP/Fortescue/Hancock etc.?
There is no reason why Roger's (ie Trump's) idea couldn't or shouldn't work.

Nadal
September 05, 2025

State-owned mining companies went the way of the dinosaurs many decades ago. To propose it suggests little fundamental knowledge of the innovation, efficiency, labour & asset management, and capital allocation required to earn a healthy return on capital in this age.

Rob Prugue
September 04, 2025

Interesting piece, Roger. Thanks for posting. Articles like this are often limited by word count, though what you’ve raised could fill volumes. This said, allow me please to add some cautionary text.

As you may recall, during the global financial crisis, the US had set up structures where bailout capital was not only repaid under TARP, but in many cases produced a profit for taxpayers. That experience showed how you can stabilise a system and still build in repayment with upside. This, however, feels different. Share ownership is perpetual, and the rules of engagement become far less clear.

Bailouts arrive in two forms. The obvious one is stepping in when a firm is on its knees. The quieter form is tax concessions and subsidies that reduce exploration and business risk, as seen in energy and parts of mining. In Australia many projects still pay no royalties despite drawing heavily on public resources. Both raise the same issue: public risk without matching accountability.

What matters here is not the specific instrument but the framework around it. Entry and exit needs to be defined. Guardrails must be in place to limit abuse. Public funds must be managed with discipline, yielding clear benefit, and treated with the same care that any responsible steward would demand.

But yes, totally agree, we need to overhaul our “tails I win, heads you lose” style of capitalism.

BeenThereB4
September 04, 2025

Roger, strange that your thoughtful writing does not mention Tariffs, a principal platform of Trump's economic strategy.

In the 1970's/1980's, I remember the outcome of Australia's tariffs, say on motor vehicles. In my recollection the US-owned car makers were very canny in maintaining protection from imports, behind a tariff wall. But to no avail. The Japanese imported fuel-efficient and quality vehicles with features attractive to car-buyers ... electronic gizmos and the like. And they built market-share. Meanwhile GM/Ford/Chrysler stuck to 6 and 8 cylinder clunkers.

IMHO, privatisation of formerly government-owned enterprises has been successful eg CBA, Telstra, CSL etc. Not so sure about the power industry; remember Victoria's SEC (Safe Easy and Comfortable).

So, overall I prefer the private sector to allocate capital.

Thats my two bobs worth.

Dean Tipping
September 04, 2025

Settle down, Roge ol' mate. There was a reason why people queued for bread in the former Soviet Union... and why there is no longer a 'German Democratic Republic' and why Venezuela is a basket case despite being the most oil rich out of any country... because socialism does not work!! Can you imagine the devastation if the nut-jobs in the Greens were given cart-blanche of taking ownership stakes in WDS, STO, BHP, RIO et al!! Civilisation would cease to exist as Sir Humphrey might say...

Francis H
September 04, 2025

This type of capitalism is akin to some South American dictatorship. Or to Ken Henry's ludicrous mining tax. Why would anyone invest in businesses where the Government can just dilute their equity and take their profits ? There is also the Constitutional impediment in Australia to doing such a thing as just compensation would need to be paid by the Government to affected shareholders making the exercise pointless. There is no possibility of any Constitutional amendment getting up. And then there is the issue of the Government shareholder contributing capital should it ever be required. Good luck with that.

Dimitri Burshtein
September 04, 2025

What an absolutely terrible idea. This is State capitalism - a system advocated by Karl Marx himself.

Just wait for President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to demand DEI policies on US government investments.

Or for Prime Minister Jim Chalmers to push for the Future Fund to invest in government priorities.

Cam
September 04, 2025

Very valid and real concerns.

I'm still contemplating the underlying idea though. I wonder if legislating that Government is nothing other than a passive investor, so no DEI, no investing for ideological reasons, no influencing who is a customer or supplier, etc and requiring 75% of Parliament voting to change.

Industry super seems to be doing a lot of influencing already, so a Government investor constrained by legislation and a voting public may be better?

Dimitri Burshtein
September 04, 2025

Industry Super is not government. And it has a sole purpose test - whether that works perfectly or not is another matter.

Governments can pass laws and they can repeal them too. Including to remove the 75% supermajority.

Have a look at the other government commercial enterprises ... NBN. Snowy 2.0. And now (or is again) mortgage insurance.

JohnS
September 04, 2025

" I believe capitalism is the best solution we currently have (socialism eventually runs out of other people’s money)"

compare these quotes of John Maynard Keynes

"capitalism is the extraordinary belief that the nastiest men, for the nastiest reasons, will somehow work for the benefit of us all"

or another quote from Keynes

"capitalism is the outstanding belief that the most wickedest of all men will do the most wickedest things for the greatest good of all"

There seems to be a difference of opinion here!!!

david edwards
September 05, 2025

And Adam Smith rebutted this nonsense 150 years before Keynes was around...ie., that private vices can become public virtues, The pursuit of profit and striving for greater production, under the rules of law, etc., can be a positive benefit that trumps benign Socialist clap-trap all the time

Trevor
September 04, 2025

I agree with the Cato Institute.

 

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