The Weekend Edition includes a market update plus Morningstar adds links to two additional articles.
Technology was supposed to bring costs down but it doesn’t seem to be doing a very good job of it.
I just found out about another price rise for Kayo’s streaming services with its premium plan increasing from $40 to $45 a month.
It’s not the only one though. Last August, Netflix hiked prices for all its plans, with the basic ad-free plan increasing from $18.99 to $20.99 a month. In September, Disney raised the subscription price for the Disney+ ad-free plan from $15.99 to $18.99 a month. And in October, Apple TV+ monthly plan increased from $12.99 to $15.99 a month.
The streamers have relentlessly raised prices since launching in Australia. The Netflix basic ad-free plan cost $8.99 a month when first launched in 2015. That means the price of the plan has risen 133% over 11 years at a compound annual growth rate of 8%.
The increases are gathering pace too, as Netflix subscribers have seen two price hikes over the past 21 months, with the basic ad-free plan up 26% over that time.
So, how are they getting away with it?
Back in the (good?) old days
I remember it being vastly different to when I grew up in the 1980s and early 90s. Back then, we had free-to-air television and that was it. The TV then had more local content, less from overseas, an abundance of ads, and wasn’t very good. You had to watch shows at fixed times, unlike most of the time today when you can watch them when you want – though that’s changing too.
The TVs cost between $500 to a bit north of $1,000, which was quite a lot of money then. But while the TV sets weren’t cheap, the content was.
Today, it’s very different. We have an abundance of choices. More shows, more from overseas, ad-free if we pay up, and the convenience of all of it being on the one device (or a few devices if you wish).
It’s the content that’s much more expensive. Including the cost of Wi-fi, I am paying more than $2,000 a year for my streaming services – which is a lot of money.
From one oligopoly to another
When I grew up, the major TV networks – Nine, Seven, and Ten – made a mint off all the ads they showed. They had an oligopoly over TV services and made the most of it. That was around the peak for these operators.
Today, streaming is also dominated by a few companies, though they’re primarily tech giants based in the US. They have immense power like Nine, Seven, and Ten once did.
We seem to have swapped one oligopoly for another. Where TV networks used to rake it in based solely on ads, the streamers use a mix of ads and subscriptions to make their revenue.
Wasn’t technology supposed to reduce prices?
Improving technology was supposed to drive down prices, but that doesn’t seem to have happened with television.
The streaming companies will tell you that the content they provide doesn’t come cheap. Costs for sports have skyrocketed, and those for movies and TV series budgets have also ballooned.
Yet, these cost increases don’t fully explain the price hikes for streaming services. The power of the streamers is a significant factor too.
It’s not just streaming
It’s not just streaming where costs are going up. It seems to be happening with technology across the board, both for individuals and businesses.
Just ask Microsoft users about costs for Office and storage products of late. In early 2025, the cost for a 365 personal plan went from $109 to $159 a year. The company is planning to increase 365 prices for business and government users mid this year, citing improved AI capabilities.
You’re going to hear more about AI-related price increases from the tech giants because they need to recoup the hundreds of billions of dollars that they’re pouring into the new technology.
Competition is the answer
Back in the 80s, the TV networks had an entrenched oligopoly and ruthlessly protected it. Today, the tech giants have a stranglehold on the industry and pay billions to governments (“donations”) to take out competitors to make sure it stays that way.
It makes Netflix’s proposed takeover of Warner Bros Discover a fascinating test case. A takeover would undoubtedly increase the power of Netflix and reduce competition in streaming services. But the US has been weak in preventing monopolies/oligopolies in the tech industry in the past, and Trump himself has plenty of conflicts of interest, with his own media platforms and personal relationships with some of the main players.
If the takeover is successful, it will further consolidate the streaming industry and lead to higher prices for services in the long term.
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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech in Davos caused quite a stir, arguing the longstanding rules-based international order has effectively ended and that middle powers like Canada must band together and pursue strategic autonomy rather than relying on old assumptions about global stability. In my piece this week, I suggest that Carney is onto something and the speech helps explain recent geopolitical events and some of the wild swings in markets, especially in currencies and commodities. I also contend that the regime shift will have significant implications for markets and portfolios over the long-term.
Meanwhile, Ben Walsh believes Carney's speech means much higher defence spending is needed by "middle powers" including Australia. With our budget deficit, more spending on defence likely means less spending on other things, including housing subsidies. He thinks housing reform is now becoming a strategic necessity rather than political suicide.
James Gruber
Also in this week's edition...
Clime's Steve Lambeth says the ASX’s traditional yield advantage has flipped, with dividend yields now sitting below risk-free government bond yields despite little to no dividend growth, creating an 'upside-down' market where equities no longer compensate investors for their higher risk. In this environment, he thinks investors need to be more selective about finding income stocks.
Commodities are flying and the big question is: is it too late to buy in, or are there still opportunities? Airlie's Emma Fisher gives an overview of the sector and where she's finding value on the ASX.
Meanwhile, gold’s surge into 2026 has prompted fears of having “missed out”, but John Reade says that misunderstands why gold has been rising and the role it plays in portfolios. He suggests its strength reflects deeper, structural shifts in inflation, policy and diversification - making gold less a trade and more a strategic anchor for portfolio resilience.
Did you know that South Korea's market went up 75% in US dollar terms last year? Or that Asia more broadly easily outperformed the US in 2025? Fidelity International's Matthew Quaife and Peiqian Liu believe it's no fluke and the outlook for Asia remains bright.
New research shows that after strong bull runs, markets need near-perfect conditions to keep delivering outsized returns - and history says that almost never happens. Larry Swedroe explains why today’s exuberance may be setting investors up for a decade of disappointment.
Two extra articles from Morningstar this weekend. Malik Ahmed Khan outlines Meta's strong results, and Seth Goldstein increases his fair value for Tesla after its earnings update.
Lastly, in this week's whitepaper, MFS highlights key themes and growth opportunities for investors to consider in 2026.
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Weekend market update
A brutal selloff in precious metals highlighted Friday’s action with gold retreating by 9% and silver absorbing a near 30% wipeout, though both remain comfortably in the green in this young 2026. US stocks logged their third straight red finish on the S&P 500 with a 0.4% dip, shaving January’s gains to 1.4%, while Treasurys steepened a bit with the 2-year yield ticking to 3.52% from 3.53% and the long bond rising two basis points to 4.87%. WTI crude notched another five-month high near US$66 a barrel, while the VIX rose nearly a point to approach 18.
From AAP:
Australia's share market handed back an early gain to slip lower on Friday, with miners plunging after carrying the bourse for most of the week. The S&P/ASX200 fell 0.65% to 8,869.1.
An early boost turned to dust by the afternoon, as the basic materials sector plummeted more than 3% led by gold stocks and further pummelled by massive outflows as investors cashed in on what had been a 13% rally in January.
The about-face came as rumour spread that US President Donald Trump's Federal Reserve chair replacement would be someone less inclined to cut interest rates for the world's largest economy.
Large-cap miners weren't spared from the sell-off, with BHP, Fortescue and Rio Tinto each down more than 1.8% as China's iron ore stockpiles continued to grow and steel mill demand remained weak.
The 'shiny new' sub-sectors of battery minerals and rare earths also sank despite a handful of positive December quarter production results during the week.
The heavyweight financials sector acted as a ballast against the mining sell-off, gaining 0.5% and tracking similar gains for the big four banks.
Energy stocks had their flattest session of the week, eking a less than 0.1% gain after oil prices helped lift the segment more than 4% since Monday, against a backdrop of rising US tensions with Iran and sustained Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
IT stocks tanked to 10-month lows, tracking a slip on Wall Street's Nasdaq, after concerns about artificial intelligence spending resurfaced despite strong US tech earnings.
Health care stocks topped the other sectors, up 1.1% and tracking with a similar gain in blood plasma giant CSL, while Resmed shot 3.1% higher after lifting revenue almost 10% in the second quarter.
In company news, Nine Entertainment shares rose more than 5% after it flagged a deal to offload its ailing radio assets and a separate plan to scoop up outdoor advertising group QMS.
Droneshield's share price has tumbled by more than a quarter over the week, and has fallen to roughly the same price point that preceded a major dump in November when its leadership suddenly offloaded $70 million in stock.
Turning to local monetary policy, the Reserve Bank will begin its two-day meeting on Monday and is widely expected to hike the local cash rate by 0.25 per cent to stem stubborn price growth at home.
From Shane Oliver, AMP:
Global markets had a volatile week amidst ongoing US tariff threats, fears of a US strike on Iran, some mixed US earnings news, Trump’s announcement of Kevin Warsh who is seen as less dovish as his nomination for Fed Chair to replace Powell, and volatility in the US dollar. US shares still managed to rise 0.3% for the week though helped by generally strong earnings news, Eurozone shares gained 0.2% and Chinese shares rose 0.1%, but Japanese shares fell 1%. Despite increased expectations for an RBA rate hike after high inflation data the Australian share market rose 0.1% for the week. Bond yields rose slightly in the US, but were flat in Japan and fell in Europe and Australia.
The main action was in gold and silver though. Ongoing erratic policy making in the US and the high levels of geopolitical risk saw gold and silver initially surge (with gold rising above $US5,000 for the first time ever) only to then fall back sharply on Trump’s nomination of Warsh as Fed Chair on expectations he will be less dovish than other choices. This looks like a bit of a correction though – albeit a very severe one for silver – as both gold and silver were very overbought and vulnerable to a sharp fall having risen so far so fast. And in the near-term Warsh is likely to be dovish advocating for lower rates. Bitcoin fell again over the last week. Oil prices rose further on increasing concerns about a US strike on Iran, but metal and iron ore prices fell. The $A initially surged above $US0.70 on the back of heightened expectations for an RBA rate hike and as the $US fell further, only to then fall back on news of Warsh’s nomination. The $A still rose over the week though and the $US still ended lower.
Another high inflation reading in Australia. December CPI data showed a further rise in inflation to 3.8%yoy with trimmed mean inflation rising further to 3.4%yoy in the month. The RBA will focus on the December quarter trimmed mean and it rose 0.9%qoq or 3.35%yoy.
This provides a messy read in terms of what the RBA will do in the week ahead. On the one hand: all key measures of inflation are now well above target; the December quarter trimmed mean is above what the RBA was forecasting last November; services inflation edged up; goods price inflation is well up from its lows; and the gap between the proportion of items seeing price rises above 3%yoy and those seeing less than 2%yoy widened further. This has come on the back of a fall in unemployment to 4.1% indicating that the labour market remains tightish. On the other hand: monthly trimmed mean inflation has progressively trended lower from 0.47%mom in July to 0.23%mom in December (see the next chart which shows a downtrend in the annualised monthly trend mean since July) and slowed from 1%qoq in the September quarter to 0.9%qoq in the December quarter; rent and new dwelling price increases slowed in December; we still expect inflation to fall back to around target by late this year and revised RBA forecasts are likely to be similar; business surveys show output price indicators running around levels consistent with the inflation target (see the NAB survey comments below); consumer spending is likely to take a hit if we go so quickly from rate cuts to hikes as mortgage stress likely remains high; and the rise in the Australian dollar is a defacto monetary tightening that will help lower imported inflation. So, all up the RBA’s decision for Tuesday is a very close call.
Curated by James Gruber and Leisa Bell
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