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18 June 2026
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There’s no shying away from it, recovering from COVID-19 and the great lockdown will be unsteady and challenging. However, for Australia, there are green shoots appearing for 2021.
This note provides an update and looks at five reasons why the Australian economy is well placed for a solid recovery in 2021 and why Australian shares are likely to be relative outperformers versus global shares.
Last year's “back in black and back on track” budget was all about delivering the long-awaited budget surplus. This year, it’s spend, spend, spend as the focus remains on recovery and jobs, jobs, jobs.
The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. The blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter.
There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc. However, the magnitude of the shock means it will have medium to longer-term implications as well.
After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news. However, positive news on the coronavirus outbreak is starting to get the upper hand.
Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.
Something unusual is happening in markets. The winners are pulling further ahead at an extraordinary pace. As return dispersion hits extreme levels, volatility is rising and the investing landscape is becoming harder to navigate.
Extreme wealth concentration is no longer just a side effect of growth. As inequality deepens, its consequences are shifting from a social concern to a broader threat to economic stability and democratic resilience.
AI exuberance is colliding with economic reality. Cracks are emerging as spending surges, ROI remains uncertain and enterprise behaviour shifts. The next phase may look less like an expansion and more like a reckoning.
The 2026 budget has reignited Australia’s tax reform debate, but more work remains. Beneath the surface lies a harder question: what structural reforms are needed to make the country's tax system fit for the future?
The Budget's negative gearing changes defer deductions rather than deny them, yet a worked example shows quarantining can halve the tax benefit's present value for buyers of established dwellings.
In just four years, Australia's private capital landscape has transformed. We are seeing changes across who deploys capital, how deals are structured and why new platforms and investor pathways are rapidly emerging.