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Friday, 30 July 2021
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Market risks are skewed to the downside for the next 12 to 18 months, and if the Federal Reserve is forced to counter inflation, a 30% broad-based correction in equity markets is a possibility.
Global stock markets could face the most volatile period since 2008-09. The danger is that US fiscal stimulus could fan inflation and lead to higher-than-expected interest rates. Risks are asymmetric to the downside.
In Part 2 of this two-part series, Hamish discusses how the most dominant businesses of the last 50 years might struggle, faced with new threats, and even Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are worried.
Facebook, Google and Amazon seem already entrenched in our lives, but with the information they know about their users, their ability to target advertising and products has only touched the surface of change.
Business has always faced changes, but the rapid extent of technical progress means many companies will cease to exist over the next 20 years, including some famous global brands.
Knowing about psychological barriers to good investment performance can help to understand and minimise mistakes. Consider how often a cognitive bias has led to a poor investment.
The Government has taken the next step towards encouraging retirees to live off their capital, and from 1 July 2022 will require super funds - even SMSFs - to address retirement income and protect longevity risk.
Superannuation funds need to establish a framework that offers retirees a retirement income solution that lasts a lifetime. It will challenge trustees to find a way to engage that their members understand and trust.
Dividend payments from listed companies, depended on by many in retirement, have lagged the rebound in share prices over the past year. Better times are ahead but sources of dividends will differ from previous years.
Small cap investors face less mature companies with zero profit that need significant capital for growth. Without years of financial data to rely on, investors must employ creative ways to value companies.
All eyes are on Japan and the opportunity to win for competing athletes. After disappointing investors for many years, Japan is also in focus for its value, diversification and the safe haven status of its currency.
The collapse of Virgin Australia not only hit shareholders, but their bond investors received between 9 and 13 cents in the $1. A widely-diversified portfolio can tolerate losses better than a concentrated one.
The traditional 60/40 portfolio might deliver only 1.5% above inflation in future without diversification benefits. Knowing an asset’s attributes rather than arbitrary definitions is better for investors.
Retirees want better returns but they have limited appetite to dial up their risk exposure in order to achieve it. Financial advice and protection strategies in portfolios can enhance investment outcomes.