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Wednesday, 20 October 2021
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As interest rates fell in recent years, there was a push into emerging markets debt, but as worldwide central bank stimulus reduces, many of these 'emerging' countries are showing why they are poorly rated.
The high yield debt market is now much larger and riskier than just before the GFC. That doesn’t bode well for when the next downturn happens and investors have several options to de-risk.
What to do when you think a market correction is overdue? Instead of selling off everything, a viable option is to position yourself for an easier exit, although it's tougher to implement in equities than fixed interest.
A sign that the strong credit cycle is ending is the funding of some emerging market governments that are more than likely to default, but demand is driven by desire for yield regardless of risk.
Investors seeking yield need to watch the margin contraction on so-called 'high yield' debt, especially since the protective covenants are weaker than in the past.
Bringing funds management in-house is a popular move for large Australian super funds, but the potential problems have been highlighted by Harvard, an early pioneer of the practice, returning to outsourcing.
Rather than compare results against APRA's benchmark, large super funds which failed the YFYS performance test are using another measure such as a CPI+ target, with more favourable results to show their members.
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.
Two prominent fund managers with strongly opposing views and techniques. Cathie Wood thinks Tesla is going to US$3,000, Rob Arnott says it's already a bubble at US$750. They debate valuing growth and disruption.
Four key materials are required for battery production as we head towards 30X the number of electric cars. It opens exciting opportunities for Australian companies as the country aims to become a regional hub.
Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.
The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.
At the start of COVID, the Government allowed early access to super, but in a strange twist, others were permitted to leave money in tax-advantaged super for another year. It helped the wealthy and should not be repeated.