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Jonathan Rochford

Media worth consuming - September 2019

Links to dozens of global media articles that often do not receive mainstream coverage in Australia. Some links are sceptical, fun or pointed, while others challenge consensus and accepted wisdom. 

Why bank hybrids are far too expensive

The recent rise in the prices of bank hybrids fails to recognise the risks involved, and they now look expensive compared to alternatives available to both retail and institutional investors.

Tech Wreck 2.0 and Debt Wreck 2.0 are coming

It’s only taken 20 years but the hallmarks of the excesses of the 2000 Tech Wreck are in play again. At the same time, some of the lending mistakes of the GFC are being repeated.

Review: Howard Marks on the market cycle

Howard Marks distills a lifetime of investing into his new book, and perhaps as a sign that he has really mastered the market cycle, he has just sold a majority stake in Oaktree to Brookfield.

Why bother investing in government bonds?

Government bonds produced good returns last year, but at the current starting position of lower rates, the cost of defensiveness is probably a limited payoff.

What is 'cash' and why it matters

APRA’s letter to super funds highlights concerns about 'cash' investments. A lack of understanding might haunt investors when the next downturn comes as too many people forsake protection for yield.

Latest Updates

Superannuation

The 'Contrast Principle' used by super fund test failures

Rather than compare results against APRA's benchmark, large super funds which failed the YFYS performance test are using another measure such as a CPI+ target, with more favourable results to show their members.

Property

RBA switched rate priority on house prices versus jobs

RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.

Investment strategies

Disruptive innovation and the Tesla valuation debate

Two prominent fund managers with strongly opposing views and techniques. Cathie Wood thinks Tesla is going to US$3,000, Rob Arnott says it's already a bubble at US$750. They debate valuing growth and disruption.

Shares

4 key materials for batteries and 9 companies that will benefit

Four key materials are required for battery production as we head towards 30X the number of electric cars. It opens exciting opportunities for Australian companies as the country aims to become a regional hub.

Shares

Why valuation multiples fail in an exponential world

Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.

Shares

Five value chains driving the ‘transition winners’

The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.

Superannuation

Halving super drawdowns helps wealthy retirees most

At the start of COVID, the Government allowed early access to super, but in a strange twist, others were permitted to leave money in tax-advantaged super for another year. It helped the wealthy and should not be repeated.

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