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Neuberger Berman

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 1Q23

Last year saw a historic surge in inflation and interest rates, and a corresponding reset in financial asset valuations. At the start of 2023, we believe peak inflation has passed, and anticipate a gradual reduction in pricing pressures over the year.

Private markets: from alternative to mainstream

This paper, by Erik Knutzen, explores the evolution of private markets over the past 30 years and looks at key trends and challenges for the decades to come.

Fixed Income Investment Outlook 3Q 2022

Monetary tightening has delivered higher interest rates and widened credit spreads. Although there is risk to the upside, we believe that inflation will ease from peak levels but remain elevated above targets until well into next year.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 3Q 2022

Recession or not, we believe equity investors are going to feel like they’re in one as the valuation adjustment of the first half of 2022 is followed by downward revisions to earnings forecasts in the second half.

The inflation inflection: Adjusting to the new paradigm

Portfolios should be prepared for higher inflation and should contain not only assets that can mitigate against and take advantage of inflation, but also assets that can diversify against the uncertainty and volatility of the journey.

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 1Q22

A fundamentally robust economy and a positive earnings and default outlook make the case for holding risky assets through 2022, in our view. But the likely transition to structurally higher inflation and higher interest rates, plus the risk of central bank policy errors, could be a recipe for elevated volatility.

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Investment strategies

Warren Buffett's final lesson

I’ve long seen Buffett as a flawed genius: a great investor though a man with shortcomings. With his final letter to Berkshire shareholders, I reflect on how my views of Buffett have changed and the legacy he leaves.

Property

The housing market is heading into choppy waters

With rates on hold and housing demand strong, lenders are pushing boundaries. As risky products return, borrowers should be cautious and not let clever marketing cloud their judgment.

Investment strategies

Dumb money triumphant

One sign of today's speculative market froth is that retail investors are winning, and winning big. It bears remarkable similarities to 1929 and 1999, and this story may not have a happy ending either.

Retirement

Can the sequence of investment returns ruin retirement?

Retirement outcomes aren’t just about average returns. The sequence of returns, good or bad, can dramatically shape how long super lasts. Understanding sequencing risk is key to managing longevity risk.

Strategy

How AI is changing search and what it means for Google

The use of generative AI in search is on the rise and has profound implications for search engines like Google, as well as for companies that rely on clicks to make sales.

Survey: Getting to know you, and your thoughts on Firstlinks

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Investment strategies

A framework for understanding the AI investment boom

Technological leaps - from air travel to computing - has enriched society but squeezed margins. As AI accelerates, investors must separate progress from profitability to avoid repeating past mistakes.

Economy

The mystery behind modern spending choices

Today’s consumers are walking contradictions - craving simplicity in an age of abundance, privacy in a public world. These tensions tell a bigger story about what people truly value and why.

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