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Tim Congdon

Falling money supply points to recession, and maybe severe

There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.

Tim Congdon warned us and we ignored him on inflation

In 2020 and 2021, Tim Congdon warned us about rapid increases in inflation due to the excess of money growth over output, and he excoriates the experts who ignored the obvious. What is he now saying about 2023? 

How long will the bad inflation news last?

The answer to whether the US inflation increase will prove temporary or permanent depends on the rates of growth of the quantity of money. It needs to be brought down to about 0.3% a month, and that's a problem.

Magic money printing and the reality of inflation

It looks like a magic money tree, where the central bank simply deposits money in the government's bank account. We asked one of the world's leading authorities on monetarism for an explanation.

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Weekly Editorial

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 628 with weekend update

Australian investors have been pouring money into US stocks this year, just as they start to underperform the rest of the world. Is this a sign of things to come? This looks at 50 years of data to see what happens next.

  • 11 September 2025
Exchange traded products

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Retirement

We need a better scheme to help superannuation victims

The Compensation Scheme of Last Resort fails families hit by First Guardian and Shield losses, as well as advisers who are being wrongly blamed for the saga. It’s time for a fair, faster, universal super levy solution.

Investment strategies

5 charts every retiree must see…

Retirement can be daunting for Australians facing financial uncertainty. Understand your goals, longevity challenges, inflation impacts, market risks, and components of retirement income with these crucial charts.

Economy

How bread vs rice moulded history

Does a country's staple crop decide elements of its destiny? The second order effects of being a wheat or rice growing country could explain big differences in culture, societal norms and economic development.

Investment strategies

Small caps are catching fire - for good reason

Small caps just crashed the party like John McClane did in the movie, Die Hard - August delivered explosive gains. With valuations at historic lows, long-term investors could be set for a sequel worth watching.

Defensive growth for an age of deglobalisation, debt and disorder

Today’s new world order appears likely to lead to a lower return, higher risk investment environment. But this asset class looks especially well placed to survive, thrive, and deliver attractive returns to investors.

Economy

Will we choose a four-day working week?

The allure of a four-day week reflects a yearning for more balance in our lives. Yet the reliability of studies touting a lift in productivity is questionable and society may not be ready for such a shift anyway.

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