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28 February 2026
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Value of forecasts, bond face-off: Chin versus Rochford, know what you own, Howard Marks on tax, ASX trends, deluded expectations, tax notices coming?
Government bonds do not feature in most retail portfolios, but they carry defensive qualities with income to offset the higher risks in other asset allocations. Are they always worth including?
Government bonds produced good returns last year, but at the current starting position of lower rates, the cost of defensiveness is probably a limited payoff.
In some markets, the sheer volume of money flows into both good and bad companies, but when tougher conditions inevitably come, it's the quality earnings that sustain.
Notwithstanding the popularity of ETFs, Australians are increasingly trading directly on foreign exchanges as online brokers make execution easier. But traditional local names remain popular.
Many investors are deluding themselves expecting high returns without taking risks, and it has poor consequences for retirement planning and setting goals. It pays to be more realistic.
It sounds arcane but it could be costly. For the first time, about 44,000 individuals will receive their first Division 293 notice early in 2019, and it will surprise many.
In his latest memo to clients, Oaktree's Howard Marks quotes the popular 'beer' example to explain the tax system, and we reproduce it here.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.