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Edition: 291

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Cuffelinks Newsletter Edition 291

  • 1 February 2019

Value of forecasts, bond face-off: Chin versus Rochford, know what you own, Howard Marks on tax, ASX trends, deluded expectations, tax notices coming?

Government bonds always have a role in diversified portfolios

Government bonds do not feature in most retail portfolios, but they carry defensive qualities with income to offset the higher risks in other asset allocations. Are they always worth including?

Why bother investing in government bonds?

Government bonds produced good returns last year, but at the current starting position of lower rates, the cost of defensiveness is probably a limited payoff.

Know what you own in complex markets

In some markets, the sheer volume of money flows into both good and bad companies, but when tougher conditions inevitably come, it's the quality earnings that sustain.

Trading trends feature global moves

Notwithstanding the popularity of ETFs, Australians are increasingly trading directly on foreign exchanges as online brokers make execution easier. But traditional local names remain popular.

Great investment expectations are deluded

Many investors are deluding themselves expecting high returns without taking risks, and it has poor consequences for retirement planning and setting goals. It pays to be more realistic.

Is a Division 293 tax notice coming your way?

It sounds arcane but it could be costly. For the first time, about 44,000 individuals will receive their first Division 293 notice early in 2019, and it will surprise many.

Marks and the tax system explained in beer

In his latest memo to clients, Oaktree's Howard Marks quotes the popular 'beer' example to explain the tax system, and we reproduce it here.

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Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, 2025 edition

Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.

Get set for a bumpy 2026

At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.

Meg on SMSFs: First glimpse of revised Division 296 tax

Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Property versus shares - a practical guide for investors

I’ve been comparing property and shares for decades and while both have their place, the differences are stark. When tax, costs, and liquidity are weighed, property looks less compelling than its reputation suggests.

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