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Edition: 291

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Cuffelinks Newsletter Edition 291

  • 1 February 2019

Value of forecasts, bond face-off: Chin versus Rochford, know what you own, Howard Marks on tax, ASX trends, deluded expectations, tax notices coming?

Government bonds always have a role in diversified portfolios

Government bonds do not feature in most retail portfolios, but they carry defensive qualities with income to offset the higher risks in other asset allocations. Are they always worth including?

Why bother investing in government bonds?

Government bonds produced good returns last year, but at the current starting position of lower rates, the cost of defensiveness is probably a limited payoff.

Know what you own in complex markets

In some markets, the sheer volume of money flows into both good and bad companies, but when tougher conditions inevitably come, it's the quality earnings that sustain.

Trading trends feature global moves

Notwithstanding the popularity of ETFs, Australians are increasingly trading directly on foreign exchanges as online brokers make execution easier. But traditional local names remain popular.

Great investment expectations are deluded

Many investors are deluding themselves expecting high returns without taking risks, and it has poor consequences for retirement planning and setting goals. It pays to be more realistic.

Is a Division 293 tax notice coming your way?

It sounds arcane but it could be costly. For the first time, about 44,000 individuals will receive their first Division 293 notice early in 2019, and it will surprise many.

Marks and the tax system explained in beer

In his latest memo to clients, Oaktree's Howard Marks quotes the popular 'beer' example to explain the tax system, and we reproduce it here.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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