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Edition: 531

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 531 with weekend update

  • 19 October 2023
  • 7

LICs will always have a place but they will never match ETF volumes again. The baggage of discounts, and even large premiums, is too heavy, with three new  announcements. And I describe the biggest loss this year in my own SMSF.

Meg on SMSFs: negative earnings and the $3 million tax

There’s no good news in the draft legislation for 'Division 296 tax', the new name for the tax on super over $3 million. These worked examples show the flaw in taxing unrealised gains. And stop calling it a 30% tax.

What's next for bank hybrids?

APRA is investigating bank hybrids to better secure bank capital and the broader financial system. The problem in Australia is most hybrids are held by 'retail' investors who may not understand the risks. 

The biggest loss this year in my SMSF portfolio

Regardless of the strengths of a stock, there are no certainties. Bond rates have risen far higher than most analysts expected and 'bond proxies' have suffered, even property with long leases, quality tenants and tailwinds.

The five best ways to prepare for your retirement

Managing retirement is as important as building a superannuation balance. Leaving work can lead to a loss of identify if there is a failure to craft a new life and it is a big shock for many retirees.

Bond opportunities in a higher rate world

As investors navigate a potential recession and the possibility of higher interest rates for longer, the lure of fixed income is understandable. Here a primer to help investors decide which bonds may be best for them.

Global recession looms as debt balloons

Global equity markets face serious challenges, including expensive equity valuations, sticky inflation, high interest rates, and huge debt levels in most major economies. Recession seems probable, as does low equity returns.

What is trend following and why do it?

Trend-following strategies have been around for a long time though they're still seemingly underappreciated. These strategies can provide diversification benefits and help protect downside risks to portfolios.

Podcast: Trading vs boredom, tax-free super, 2024 global recession?

James Gruber looks at the investment art of doing nothing, Graham Hand wonders why people are paying tax by not starting a super pension, and Peter Warnes predicts a protracted global recession starting mid-next year.

Survey results: Your personal experiences with inflation

Over four in five respondents feel inflation has risen faster than official statistics and three-quarters believe companies are taking advantage of circumstances to increases prices. Check the quirky anecdotes.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, 2025 edition

Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.

Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

Get set for a bumpy 2026

At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.

Meg on SMSFs: First glimpse of revised Division 296 tax

Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.

Property versus shares - a practical guide for investors

I’ve been comparing property and shares for decades and while both have their place, the differences are stark. When tax, costs, and liquidity are weighed, property looks less compelling than its reputation suggests.

10 fearless forecasts for 2026

The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.

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