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Edition: 630

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 630 with weekend update

  • 25 September 2025
  • 15

Macquarie accounted for a staggering 39% share of new home loans in July and one fundie thinks it poses a significant threat to the Big Four banks over the next decade. If right, it would spell trouble for the broader ASX 200 index too.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

Should housing home people or money?

Australia’s home ownership dream is fading as prices soar beyond the reach of many. To achieve affordable prices, the way that Australians view housing as a means of building wealth may need to change.

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Mitigate or adapt: the climate challenge

When change comes we have three paths: ignore it, try to soften its blow, or adapt to it. Australia leans hard on mitigation for climate change but neglects adaptation, leaving us exposed and unprepared.

The three key drivers of a purposeful retirement

The concept of retirement is evolving for Australians, with new research showing a desire to work post-retirement and prioritize social connections. Quality financial advice and ‘practising’ retirement activities are key.

Australia’s moment? De-dollarisation gains momentum

Global credit markets face a fundamental shift as US dollar dominance wanes. Australian investment-grade credit, with attractive spreads and stability, may emerge as a key beneficiary in this structural capital reallocation.

AI is more smoke and mirrors than a revolution

AI hype oversells machine 'intelligence', masking its true nature as pattern replication. This flood of synthetic content threatens trust and fairness - underscoring the enduring need for thoughtful human oversight.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income

Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.

Will you run out of money in retirement?

Fear of running out has become a defining retirement anxiety. Why do some retirees die with substantial wealth while others deplete their nest egg? Evidence suggests the answer is more complicated than we think. 

The investment that sidesteps the new tax traps

Tax rules have changed, but many investors are still using yesterday’s strategies. Insurance bonds may offer advantages for those seeking greater control, tax efficiency and certainty about their wealth.

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Treasury’s latest CGT reform draft delivers a win for testamentary trusts and deceased estates, exempting estate-derived gains from the 30% floor. However, questions on death and divorce rollovers remain unresolved.

Meg on SMSFs: What do we think about reversionary pensions these days?

Reversionary pensions have long been a staple of SMSF estate planning, but are they still the best option? Meg Heffron revisits a once-clear favourite and asks whether changing super rules have shifted the balance.

How does the 4% rule stack up?

The 4% rule has long been retirement's gold standard. But after a difficult period for investors, fresh analysis suggests a more conservative approach may significantly improve the chances of making savings last.

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