Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

15 April 2026

Home / 280

Share outlook turns negative for first time

According to the Investment Trends October 2018 Investor Intentions Index, Australian retail investors’ stock market return expectations have slipped into negative territory for the first time since tracking began in 2009.

Each month, Investment Trends asks investors what return they expect from the Australian stock market, excluding dividends, over the coming 12 months. In October 2018, the average capital gain expectation of investors fell to -1%, down from +1.2% in September and +4.7% in January this year. For the first time, on average, investors expect domestic markets will be lower in 12 months’ time than where they are today.

Click to enlarge

Investors believe we’re in a bear market

By way of comparison, when asked to rate their level of concern with global financial markets, in February 2018 the average investor was the least concerned since the GFC. In fact, throughout 2017 investors became increasingly desensitised to both market volatility and global events.

Fast forward to October 2018 and the picture is very different with concern levels reaching a 22-month high. While recent volatility has played a hand in driving this pessimism, investors are now more concerned about major global issues.

Geopolitical events cast a darker shadow over investors’ outlook

When asked what they are most worried about, investors cite:

  • the current White House administration (46%)
  • tension between the world’s major economies (40%)
  • global debt levels (33%)
  • China slowdown (32%), and
  • recent share market volatility (27%)

Whether directly or indirectly, Australians are concerned about the economic outcomes of the current White House administration and the trade policies being implemented both by the US and in response to them.

With capital gain expectations for the Australian stock market turning negative at the same time that the local property market has cooled, for financial services there’s a big job to be done to convince Australians to stay invested through the current cycle.

 

Recep Peker is Research Director at Investment Trends.

 

  •   14 November 2018
  • 1
  •      
  •   
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Want your loved ones to inherit your super? You can’t afford to skip this one step

One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings. 

Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

Has Australia wasted the last 30 years?

The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.  

Super is catching up, but ageing is a triple-threat

An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.

The refinery problem: A different kind of energy crisis in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.

3 ways to defuse intergenerational anger

With the upcoming budget increasingly likely to include bold proposals to alter the tax code I’ve outlined three incremental steps with fewer unintended consequences.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

War can’t be good, can it?

War brings immense human suffering and geopolitical chaos, but historically, equity markets have shown a certain detachment and resilience amid conflict, leading to increased profitability despite initial panic.

Property

Origins of the mislabeled capital gains tax ‘discount’

Debate over the CGT discount is intensifying amid concerns about intergenerational equity and housing affordability. This analysis shows that the 'discount' does not necessarily favor property investors.

Superannuation

Div 296 may mean your estate pays tax on assets your beneficiaries never receive

The new super tax, applying from 1 July, introduces more than just a higher rate on large balances. It brings into focus a misalignment between where wealth sits and where the tax on that wealth ultimately falls.

Investment strategies

There’s more to software than just code

AI-driven fears of collapsing software moats has triggered indiscriminate sell-offs. This has created mispricing opportunities as markets overreact to uncertainty and rising discount rates.

Economics

Europe: A new growth trajectory powered by reform and investment

Europe is undergoing a major transformation driven by security threats, US pressure, and a shift from austerity to growth. EU member states are taking proactive measures to enhance competitiveness and resilience.

Investment strategies

Orbital AI data centers prepare for launch

The new space race is driven by AI as data centers in space offer continuous solar power and reduced environmental impact. Orbital AI aims to speed data processing and ease Earth's resource strains.

Retirement

Little‑known government scheme can help retirees tap into $3 trillion of housing wealth

The Home Equity Access Scheme in Australia allows older homeowners to tap into their home equity for retirement income, yet remains underused due to lack of awareness and its perceived complexity.

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.