Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

23 April 2026

Home / 280

Share outlook turns negative for first time

According to the Investment Trends October 2018 Investor Intentions Index, Australian retail investors’ stock market return expectations have slipped into negative territory for the first time since tracking began in 2009.

Each month, Investment Trends asks investors what return they expect from the Australian stock market, excluding dividends, over the coming 12 months. In October 2018, the average capital gain expectation of investors fell to -1%, down from +1.2% in September and +4.7% in January this year. For the first time, on average, investors expect domestic markets will be lower in 12 months’ time than where they are today.

Click to enlarge

Investors believe we’re in a bear market

By way of comparison, when asked to rate their level of concern with global financial markets, in February 2018 the average investor was the least concerned since the GFC. In fact, throughout 2017 investors became increasingly desensitised to both market volatility and global events.

Fast forward to October 2018 and the picture is very different with concern levels reaching a 22-month high. While recent volatility has played a hand in driving this pessimism, investors are now more concerned about major global issues.

Geopolitical events cast a darker shadow over investors’ outlook

When asked what they are most worried about, investors cite:

  • the current White House administration (46%)
  • tension between the world’s major economies (40%)
  • global debt levels (33%)
  • China slowdown (32%), and
  • recent share market volatility (27%)

Whether directly or indirectly, Australians are concerned about the economic outcomes of the current White House administration and the trade policies being implemented both by the US and in response to them.

With capital gain expectations for the Australian stock market turning negative at the same time that the local property market has cooled, for financial services there’s a big job to be done to convince Australians to stay invested through the current cycle.

 

Recep Peker is Research Director at Investment Trends.

 

  •   14 November 2018
  • 1
  •      
  •   
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

The refinery problem: A different kind of energy crisis in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.

3 ways to defuse intergenerational anger

With the upcoming budget increasingly likely to include bold proposals to alter the tax code I’ve outlined three incremental steps with fewer unintended consequences.

The missing 30%: how LIC returns are understated, and why it matters

The perceived underperformance of LICs compared to ETFs is due to existing comparison data excluding crucial information, highlighting the need for proper assessment and transparent reporting.

Little‑known government scheme can help retirees tap into $3 trillion of housing wealth

The Home Equity Access Scheme in Australia allows older homeowners to tap into their home equity for retirement income, yet remains underused due to lack of awareness and its perceived complexity.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 655 with weekend update

Many investors are on edge as geopolitical turmoil continues to impact markets, often leading to short-sighted actions. These are the three quotes that I’ve relied on during periods of volatility.

  • 26 March 2026

Latest Updates

Retirement

2 billion reasons to fix retirement income

A proposal to address Australia's 'stranded balances' in retirement by requiring super funds to transition members to pension phase at 65, boosting retirement income and reframing super as a source of income.

Investment strategies

Not much alpha left in this bet

Google redefined advertising with its innovative business model, but its dominance is now under siege from AI competitors and shifting market dynamics.

Five simple reasons why Australian cash rates are highest

Australians are suffering the highest cash rates amongst their rich country peers for five simple reasons, including outdated inflation targeting and undisciplined monetary and fiscal policies.

Investment strategies

Spending big on AI: So where’s the proof it’s working?

Business leaders must reassess AI's return on investment using new frameworks that reflect productivity, capability shifts and long-term value creation.

Economy

Double down on renewables?

Global volatility has sharpened Australia's focus on energy security. Calls for domestic fuel production clash with renewable energy goals, sparking a debate on balancing traditional and sustainable energy sources effectively.

Investment strategies

Private Credit headwinds move onshore

It’s been a volatile couple of months in markets with the ongoing conflict in Iran. For Australian private credit investors, however, large exposures to real estate lending could mean the worst is yet to come.

Property

Five reasons unlisted commercial property is an attractive allocation in uncertain times

Cromwell takes a look at replacement cost as a practical lens on relative value in commercial property. When build-new costs rise faster than asset pricing, the gap can create opportunities in well-located existing assets.

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.