Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

12 July 2026

Home / 280

Share outlook turns negative for first time

According to the Investment Trends October 2018 Investor Intentions Index, Australian retail investors’ stock market return expectations have slipped into negative territory for the first time since tracking began in 2009.

Each month, Investment Trends asks investors what return they expect from the Australian stock market, excluding dividends, over the coming 12 months. In October 2018, the average capital gain expectation of investors fell to -1%, down from +1.2% in September and +4.7% in January this year. For the first time, on average, investors expect domestic markets will be lower in 12 months’ time than where they are today.

Click to enlarge

Investors believe we’re in a bear market

By way of comparison, when asked to rate their level of concern with global financial markets, in February 2018 the average investor was the least concerned since the GFC. In fact, throughout 2017 investors became increasingly desensitised to both market volatility and global events.

Fast forward to October 2018 and the picture is very different with concern levels reaching a 22-month high. While recent volatility has played a hand in driving this pessimism, investors are now more concerned about major global issues.

Geopolitical events cast a darker shadow over investors’ outlook

When asked what they are most worried about, investors cite:

  • the current White House administration (46%)
  • tension between the world’s major economies (40%)
  • global debt levels (33%)
  • China slowdown (32%), and
  • recent share market volatility (27%)

Whether directly or indirectly, Australians are concerned about the economic outcomes of the current White House administration and the trade policies being implemented both by the US and in response to them.

With capital gain expectations for the Australian stock market turning negative at the same time that the local property market has cooled, for financial services there’s a big job to be done to convince Australians to stay invested through the current cycle.

 

Recep Peker is Research Director at Investment Trends.

 

  •   14 November 2018
  • 1
  •      
  •   
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Testamentary trusts post-budget: Estate planning, tax reform and the ‘death tax’ debate

Proposed Budget changes to taxation are casting new uncertainty over testamentary trusts, prompting closer scrutiny of estate planning structures and the real implications of reforms still taking shape.

How to minimise tax with a will

Inheritance tax implications in Australia may surprise some, as poor estate planning without proper wills or trusts can lead to costly tax bills and delays for beneficiaries.

High quality businesses are on sale

Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.

Meg on SMSFs: The CGT changes don’t impact super but what about Div 296 tax decisions?

New CGT rules could tip the scales in the super vs non-super debate. For those facing the Division 296 tax, the case for withdrawing has gotten more complex. A "comparison rate" tool may help assess decisions.

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

The 30% minimum tax on capital gains sits at the heart of the budget's proposed reforms. Yet the mechanics reveal anomalies that introduce unexpected distortions that raise questions about its design.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 667 with weekend update

The downfall of the giant and three lessons for investors.

  • 18 June 2026

Latest Updates

Latest from Morningstar

Ranking three common retirement strategies

The defining challenge of retirement isn't just about building wealth, it's about converting your lifetime savings into sustainable income. A holistic understanding of different strategies can improve long-term outcomes.

Economy

Was life really better in the good old days?

Are we worse off than previous generations? Lately, there seems to be a heightened level of angst that economic conditions are getting harder and that the two-party political system (and maybe democracy too) is failing voters.

Retirement

Australia has saved $4.5 trillion for retirement. Here's what matters more

Most Australians approaching retirement can tell you the exact dollar value of their super account. But success depends on more than a sizeable balance. Here's four key questions to ask yourself at the start of the financial year. 

Who gains in an AI-supercharged economy?

AI is already reshaping the economy, but companies building transformative technologies rarely capture the greatest long-term value. Instead, those benefits accrue to the users. We may well see this pattern reproduced. 

Taxation

Div 296's million-dollar reset worth $25,000

The 'cost base reset' for the new super tax is being sold as protection for pre-July gains. A worked example shows $1M of protection is worth about $25,000, and the real deadline has not passed.

Latest from Morningstar

The forecasting fix that Wall Street missed

Asking whether markets are overpriced may be the wrong question. New research suggests that traditional valuation metrics used to forecast returns may have been misread. Here are five takeaways for investors.

Investment strategies

Should a fund manager invest their own money differently?

Investors often like the idea that fund managers should invest client money exactly as they invest their own. But reality is more complicated. Unique circumstances make a different approach rational and, at times, beneficial.

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2026 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.