Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

15 December 2025

Home / 280

Share outlook turns negative for first time

According to the Investment Trends October 2018 Investor Intentions Index, Australian retail investors’ stock market return expectations have slipped into negative territory for the first time since tracking began in 2009.

Each month, Investment Trends asks investors what return they expect from the Australian stock market, excluding dividends, over the coming 12 months. In October 2018, the average capital gain expectation of investors fell to -1%, down from +1.2% in September and +4.7% in January this year. For the first time, on average, investors expect domestic markets will be lower in 12 months’ time than where they are today.

Click to enlarge

Investors believe we’re in a bear market

By way of comparison, when asked to rate their level of concern with global financial markets, in February 2018 the average investor was the least concerned since the GFC. In fact, throughout 2017 investors became increasingly desensitised to both market volatility and global events.

Fast forward to October 2018 and the picture is very different with concern levels reaching a 22-month high. While recent volatility has played a hand in driving this pessimism, investors are now more concerned about major global issues.

Geopolitical events cast a darker shadow over investors’ outlook

When asked what they are most worried about, investors cite:

  • the current White House administration (46%)
  • tension between the world’s major economies (40%)
  • global debt levels (33%)
  • China slowdown (32%), and
  • recent share market volatility (27%)

Whether directly or indirectly, Australians are concerned about the economic outcomes of the current White House administration and the trade policies being implemented both by the US and in response to them.

With capital gain expectations for the Australian stock market turning negative at the same time that the local property market has cooled, for financial services there’s a big job to be done to convince Australians to stay invested through the current cycle.

 

Recep Peker is Research Director at Investment Trends.

 

  •   14 November 2018
  • 1
  •      
  •   
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Warren Buffett's final lesson

I’ve long seen Buffett as a flawed genius: a great investor though a man with shortcomings. With his final letter to Berkshire shareholders, I reflect on how my views of Buffett have changed and the legacy he leaves.

13 ways to save money on your tax - legally

Thoughtful tax planning is a cornerstone of successful investing. This highlights 13 legal ways that you can reduce tax, preserve capital, and enhance long-term wealth across super, property, and shares.

The housing market is heading into choppy waters

With rates on hold and housing demand strong, lenders are pushing boundaries. As risky products return, borrowers should be cautious and not let clever marketing cloud their judgment.

Why it’s time to ditch the retirement journey

Retirement isn’t a clean financial arc. Income shocks, health costs and family pressures hit at random, exposing the limits of age-based planning and the myth of a predictable “retirement journey".

Taking from the young, giving to the old

Despite soaring retiree wealth, public spending on older Australians continues to rise. The result: retirees now out-earn the young, exposing structural flaws in the tax system and challenges for fiscal sustainability.

Australia's retirement system works brilliantly for some - but not all

The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement. 

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

Howard Marks: AI is "terrifying" for jobs, and maybe markets too

The renowned investor says there’s no shortage of speculative investors chasing AI riches and there could be a lot of money lost in the process. His biggest warning goes to workers and the jobs which will be replaced by AI.

Property

The 3 biggest residential property myths

I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.

Retirement

Australia's retirement system works brilliantly for some - but not all

The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement. 

Retirement

Retirement affordability myths

Inflated retirement targets have driven people away from planning. This explores the gap between industry ideals and real savings, and why honest, achievable benchmarks matter. 

Retirement

Can you manage sequencing risk in retirement?

Sequencing risk can derail retirement, but you’re not powerless. Flexible withdrawals, investment choices and bucketing strategies can help retirees navigate unlucky markets and balance trade-offs.    

Retirement

Don’t rush to sell your home to fund aged care

Aged care rules have shifted. Selling the family home may no longer be the smartest option. This explains the capped means test, pension exemptions and new RAD exit fees reshaping the decision.

Shares

US market boom-bust cycles - where are we now?

This gives comprehensive data on more than 100 years of boom and bust cycles on the US stock market - how the market performed during these cycles, where the current AI uptick sits, and what the future may hold.

Property

A retail property niche offers a lot more upside

Retail real estate is outperforming as a cyclical upswing, robust demand and constrained supply drive renewed investor interest. This looks at the outlook and the continued rise of convenience assets. 

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.