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Wednesday, 26 January 2022
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In the 11th year of a bull market, near the end of the cycle, some type of correction is likely. Underneath is solid, healthy and underpinned by strong earnings growth, but there's less room for mistakes.
We use weather forecasts to inform our planning but they do not entirely drive decision making. The same should happen with investment outlooks. A globally diversified portfolio will serve best in unpredictable times.
As business fundamentals improve, the earnings recovery takes over as the primary driver of shareholder returns. The equity market is supported by its real earnings even with the inevitable share price falls.
Heavy consumer spending, rising commodity prices and government deficits point to rising inflation. Given the risk in long-term fixed rate exposure, where else can bond exposure help generate income?
Buoyed by Australia’s response and emergence from the pandemic and recession, the negative short‑term economic costs and disruption do not detract from the longer‑term positive case for Australian equities.
The next phase of recovery depends on immunity to COVID and reduced consumer reluctance to engage in normal economic activities. What are the various scenarios and how do they influence a balanced portfolio?
Dr John Hewson sees a strong potential for a US recession in 2020. Forecasting markets can be a graveyard, but global growth of the last decade has been paid for by borrowings and QE. When is payback time?
One of Australia's senior economists expects local cash rates to remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020, and consumer spending looks weak. By 2020, US growth may be down below 2%.
A monthly survey carried out for almost a decade shows the Australian retail market has turned suddenly bearish recently. Lots of factors are worrying people.
Market risks are skewed to the downside for the next 12 to 18 months, and if the Federal Reserve is forced to counter inflation, a 30% broad-based correction in equity markets is a possibility.
Shorting has implications not only for those looking to sell to profit from price falls. It can create both opportunities and challenges and all investors should watch the short volume.
When readers responded to our questions about where the market might be heading over the next 2-3 years, there were more pessimists than optimists.
Most people entering retirement do not see a financial adviser, mainly due to cost. It's a major problem because there are small mistakes a retiree can make which are expensive and avoidable if a few tips were known.
Eligibility for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card has no asset test and a relatively high income test. It's worth checking eligibility and the benefits of qualifying to save on the cost of medications.
The focus is on Magellan for its investment performance and departure of the CEO, but Douglass says the pandemic, inflation, rising rates and Middle East tensions have not played out. Vindication is always long term.
This is our annual checklist of what retirees need to be aware of in 2022. It is a long list of 25 items and not everything will apply to your situation. Run your eye over the benefits and entitlements.
The Warren Buffett/Charlie Munger partnership is the stuff of legends, but even Charlie admits it is coming to an end ("I'm nearly dead"). He is one of the few people in investing prepared to say what he thinks.
Depending on personal circumstances, it may be time to rethink the bias to paying down housing debt over wealth accumulation in super. Do the sums and ask these four questions to plan for your future.