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26 March 2026
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At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Economic growth in Australia looks to have bottomed, which means it makes sense to selectively add to cyclical exposures on the ASX in addition to key thematics like decarbonisation and technological change.
Brandywine Global's Richard Rauch warns of US and global recession risks, Vanguard's Duncan Burns on building a simple, effective investment portfolio, and Peter Warnes on the Australian market outlook for 2024.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Like the proverbial middle child, global mid-caps tend to be overlooked and underappreciated. However, mid-caps offer potentially more growth than large caps and less risk and volatility than small and micro-caps.
Almost every economic data point or announcement can be interpreted as good news or bad news, which is confusing for investors looking for guidance. 'On the other hand' is a catchphrase of the dismal science.
Central banks and markets disagree on how high and for how long interest rates will remain elevated. US stocks may not have bottomed, though bonds should have a better year as markets sweat on a Federal Reserve pivot.
Markets are pricing in rate cuts, but they will be disappointed as rates plateau at a higher level through 2023. That means that investors will have a way to generate returns - using bonds - without being forced into higher risk assets.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
Market highs and lows always have twists and turns but it never gives a big 'all clear' sign when it reaches a bottom. Three important factors provide helpful signposts for knowing when the worst will be over.
How do investors build resilience into equity portfolios when faced with inflation? Dividend-income could play a more important role but at extremes of inflation, global equities have tended to struggle.
Distracted by inflation and Ukraine worries, the market is overlooking that the US midterm elections due on 8 November 2022 usually impact equities. As US markets affect all others, what are the implications?
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings.
An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.
The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.
The best way to deal with the incoming Division 296 tax on superannuation is likely doing nothing. Earnings will be taxed regardless of where the money sits, so here are some important considerations.
An ‘affordability’ scheme making the county more vulnerable to economic shocks and contributing to the deteriorating financial situation of everyday Australians.