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Market Outlook

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2022 outlook: buy a raincoat but don't put it on yet

In the 11th year of a bull market, near the end of the cycle, some type of correction is likely. Underneath is solid, healthy and underpinned by strong earnings growth, but there's less room for mistakes.

Investment forecasts unreliable in unpredictable times

We use weather forecasts to inform our planning but they do not entirely drive decision making. The same should happen with investment outlooks. A globally diversified portfolio will serve best in unpredictable times.

The leading 2022 themes for global mid-sized companies

As business fundamentals improve, the earnings recovery takes over as the primary driver of shareholder returns. The equity market is supported by its real earnings even with the inevitable share price falls.

Three key themes for global income investing post COVID

Heavy consumer spending, rising commodity prices and government deficits point to rising inflation. Given the risk in long-term fixed rate exposure, where else can bond exposure help generate income?

Australia 2021 market outlook: cautiously optimistic

Buoyed by Australia’s response and emergence from the pandemic and recession, the negative short‑term economic costs and disruption do not detract from the longer‑term positive case for Australian equities.

2021 economic and market outlook report

The next phase of recovery depends on immunity to COVID and reduced consumer reluctance to engage in normal economic activities. What are the various scenarios and how do they influence a balanced portfolio?

2019 is time for investment caution

Dr John Hewson sees a strong potential for a US recession in 2020. Forecasting markets can be a graveyard, but global growth of the last decade has been paid for by borrowings and QE. When is payback time?

A surprise domestic growth slowdown

One of Australia's senior economists expects local cash rates to remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020, and consumer spending looks weak. By 2020, US growth may be down below 2%.

Share outlook turns negative for first time

A monthly survey carried out for almost a decade shows the Australian retail market has turned suddenly bearish recently. Lots of factors are worrying people.

Three market scenarios, including a 30% fall

Market risks are skewed to the downside for the next 12 to 18 months, and if the Federal Reserve is forced to counter inflation, a 30% broad-based correction in equity markets is a possibility.

Ignore the rise of short selling at your peril

Shorting has implications not only for those looking to sell to profit from price falls. It can create both opportunities and challenges and all investors should watch the short volume.

Survey results and your views on the outlook

When readers responded to our questions about where the market might be heading over the next 2-3 years, there were more pessimists than optimists.

Most viewed in recent weeks

10 little-known pension traps prove the value of advice

Most people entering retirement do not see a financial adviser, mainly due to cost. It's a major problem because there are small mistakes a retiree can make which are expensive and avoidable if a few tips were known.

Check eligibility for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card

Eligibility for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card has no asset test and a relatively high income test. It's worth checking eligibility and the benefits of qualifying to save on the cost of medications.

Hamish Douglass on why the movie hasn’t ended yet

The focus is on Magellan for its investment performance and departure of the CEO, but Douglass says the pandemic, inflation, rising rates and Middle East tensions have not played out. Vindication is always long term.

Start the year right with the 2022 Retiree Checklist

This is our annual checklist of what retirees need to be aware of in 2022. It is a long list of 25 items and not everything will apply to your situation. Run your eye over the benefits and entitlements.

At 98-years-old, Charlie Munger still delivers the one-liners

The Warren Buffett/Charlie Munger partnership is the stuff of legends, but even Charlie admits it is coming to an end ("I'm nearly dead"). He is one of the few people in investing prepared to say what he thinks.

Should I pay off the mortgage or top up my superannuation?

Depending on personal circumstances, it may be time to rethink the bias to paying down housing debt over wealth accumulation in super. Do the sums and ask these four questions to plan for your future.

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