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19 April 2024
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Brandywine Global's Richard Rauch warns of US and global recession risks, Vanguard's Duncan Burns on building a simple, effective investment portfolio, and Peter Warnes on the Australian market outlook for 2024.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Like the proverbial middle child, global mid-caps tend to be overlooked and underappreciated. However, mid-caps offer potentially more growth than large caps and less risk and volatility than small and micro-caps.
Almost every economic data point or announcement can be interpreted as good news or bad news, which is confusing for investors looking for guidance. 'On the other hand' is a catchphrase of the dismal science.
Central banks and markets disagree on how high and for how long interest rates will remain elevated. US stocks may not have bottomed, though bonds should have a better year as markets sweat on a Federal Reserve pivot.
Markets are pricing in rate cuts, but they will be disappointed as rates plateau at a higher level through 2023. That means that investors will have a way to generate returns - using bonds - without being forced into higher risk assets.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
Market highs and lows always have twists and turns but it never gives a big 'all clear' sign when it reaches a bottom. Three important factors provide helpful signposts for knowing when the worst will be over.
How do investors build resilience into equity portfolios when faced with inflation? Dividend-income could play a more important role but at extremes of inflation, global equities have tended to struggle.
Distracted by inflation and Ukraine worries, the market is overlooking that the US midterm elections due on 8 November 2022 usually impact equities. As US markets affect all others, what are the implications?
In the 11th year of a bull market, near the end of the cycle, some type of correction is likely. Underneath is solid, healthy and underpinned by strong earnings growth, but there's less room for mistakes.
We use weather forecasts to inform our planning but they do not entirely drive decision making. The same should happen with investment outlooks. A globally diversified portfolio will serve best in unpredictable times.
The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.
Jim Simons has achieved breathtaking returns of 62% p.a. over 33 years, a track record like no other, yet he remains little known to the public. Here’s how he’s done it, and the lessons that can be applied to our own investing.
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.
Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.