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Friday, 24 September 2021
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Heavy consumer spending, rising commodity prices and government deficits point to rising inflation. Given the risk in long-term fixed rate exposure, where else can bond exposure help generate income?
Buoyed by Australia’s response and emergence from the pandemic and recession, the negative short‑term economic costs and disruption do not detract from the longer‑term positive case for Australian equities.
The next phase of recovery depends on immunity to COVID and reduced consumer reluctance to engage in normal economic activities. What are the various scenarios and how do they influence a balanced portfolio?
Dr John Hewson sees a strong potential for a US recession in 2020. Forecasting markets can be a graveyard, but global growth of the last decade has been paid for by borrowings and QE. When is payback time?
One of Australia's senior economists expects local cash rates to remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020, and consumer spending looks weak. By 2020, US growth may be down below 2%.
A monthly survey carried out for almost a decade shows the Australian retail market has turned suddenly bearish recently. Lots of factors are worrying people.
Market risks are skewed to the downside for the next 12 to 18 months, and if the Federal Reserve is forced to counter inflation, a 30% broad-based correction in equity markets is a possibility.
Shorting has implications not only for those looking to sell to profit from price falls. It can create both opportunities and challenges and all investors should watch the short volume.
When readers responded to our questions about where the market might be heading over the next 2-3 years, there were more pessimists than optimists.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Critics of franking credits are missing the main point. The taxable income of shareholders/taxpayers must also include the company tax previously paid to the ATO before the dividend was distributed. It is fair.
Wet streets cause rain. The Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect is a name created by writer Michael Crichton after he realised that everything he read or heard in the media was wrong when he had direct personal knowledge or expertise on the subject. He surmised that everything else is probably wrong as well, and financial markets are no exception.