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AI economic scenarios: revolutionary growth, or recessionary bubble?

Investor focus is turning increasingly to AI-related risks: is it a bubble about to burst, tipping the US into recession? Or is it the onset of a third industrial revolution? And what would either scenario mean for markets?

Howard Marks: AI is "terrifying" for jobs, and maybe markets too

The renowned investor says there’s no shortage of speculative investors chasing AI riches and there could be a lot of money lost in the process. His biggest warning goes to workers and the jobs which will be replaced by AI.

Boom, bubble or alarm?

After a stellar 2025 to date for equities, warning signs - from speculative froth to stretched valuations - suggest the market’s calm may be masking deeper fragilities. Strategic rebalancing feels increasingly timely.

History tells us that markets are at a high-risk juncture

Every bubble is unique in its form and duration, yet they all share common qualities and stages. As for the current bubble in AI and quality stocks, we’ve had the displacement and the euphoria. Now for the distress.

US will fall more than Australia in next bust

Amazingly, Australian and US stock markets have delivered the same returns for their home country investors over the very long term. With the recent US strength, it's more likely to fall further in the next bust.

GFC lessons 10 years on: can it happen again?

Boom-bust cycles are inevitable and at some point, there will be a market correction although different to the GFC. Many of the signs of excess that normally precede severe and prolonged bear markets are not present yet.

The Dow hitting 20,000 and what it hides

Investors celebrated when the Dow broke through the 20,000 mark last month, but in real terms, it's a more sobering picture. Australian stocks in particular are struggling to reach their previous heights.

Who wins? Australians investing in US shares

In part 2 of Who Wins? we look at an Australian investor holding US shares compared with an investment in the local market, plus the relationship between inflation and exchange rates.

Who wins? Australia versus US in local shares

A study of Australia's stock market returns for Australian investors versus the returns from the US stock market for US investors uncovers some interesting trends. Where do the returns come from in each country?

Investing and jogging for the long run

There are more than a few similarities between running and investing. Success in either discipline is about having specific goals and strategies, avoiding the big risks, and not diverting from your plan.

Most viewed in recent weeks

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

Want your loved ones to inherit your super? You can’t afford to skip this one step

One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings. 

Super is catching up, but ageing is a triple-threat

An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.

Meg on SMSFs: Last word on Div 296 for a while

The best way to deal with the incoming Division 296 tax on superannuation is likely doing nothing. Earnings will be taxed regardless of where the money sits, so here are some important considerations.

Has Australia wasted the last 30 years?

The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.  

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