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History tells us that markets are at a high-risk juncture

Every bubble is unique in its form and duration, yet they all share common qualities and stages. As for the current bubble in AI and quality stocks, we’ve had the displacement and the euphoria. Now for the distress.

Will house prices crash?

Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.

How likely are market crashes?

It is well known that equities are subject to both booms and busts, testing the discipline of most investors. New research proposes a framework for assessing the likelihood of large equity market drawdowns.

Buy high, sell low: early super access and foregone returns

The Government hailed the Early Access Scheme as a great success, but Australians should not have withdrawn super to meet their obligations. Economic stimulus and a secure social safety net should provide for them.

Shaken by stock market carnage? Forget everything

Nobody has a clue what is going to happen with the market. When deciding what to do with your stocks today, what matters is where the business and its intrinsic value may be 10 years down the line.

What should you do next?

Sticking to a value-driven investment strategy is difficult in a market fuelled by hope and buoyant expectations. At what point should investors forego the equity market rally to prepare for a possible correction?

Reduce drawdowns by using Allocation Switch

Allocation Switch is an asset allocation strategy that follows the profits instead of following the market, which arguably helps limit downside in the event of a market crash.

The Dow hitting 20,000 and what it hides

Investors celebrated when the Dow broke through the 20,000 mark last month, but in real terms, it's a more sobering picture. Australian stocks in particular are struggling to reach their previous heights.

Bubbles and the corruption of risk

With cash investments providing such poor returns, the search for yield has driven up share and property prices, some to unrealistic levels. It has also corrupted our sense of risk which is a dangerous combination.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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