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19 April 2024
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India has overtaken China as the world's most populous nation and under a reformist Prime Minister, it's growing faster than most other emerging markets. It's also got well-run companies, some of which are global leaders.
China’s economic slowdown and the resilience of the US dollar have dimmed the lustre of many Asian economies’ strong growth momentum in the past year. But heading into 2024, Asia's growth story should reignite.
Fearmongering about Australia’s ageing population has ramped up again recently. If you want a big Australia, then make your argument for it, but don’t pretend that the age structure of the population is the reason why.
It might not look this way at the moment, but secular stagflation, when the economy produces underemployment, low inflation, and low real and nominal interest rates, is more likely than the market is expecting.
Consensus growth forecasts are far too conservative, and the Coalition’s political challenges and the Budget’s economic windfalls will likely spark additional fiscal spending later in 2021, giving further boosts.
A broader rebound beyond tech companies is likely to accelerate. Structural reforms may regain momentum after COVID and a lower risk premium is warranted for emerging markets equities compared with prior crises.
We need to think hard about how we work and live in the future. How do governments, health gurus, individuals, politicians, businesses and social groups need to act in 2021, both in dealing with COVID and thereafter?
There are plenty of reasons for pessimism as the market has recovered too strongly, but quality stocks with good earnings growth and strong cash generation and balance sheets are still available.
One of Australia's senior economists expects local cash rates to remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020, and consumer spending looks weak. By 2020, US growth may be down below 2%.
Since the 1950s, predictions on the death of economic cycles have come and gone, and each time they have been wrong. But since no two cycles are the same, we ought to look for what’s different this time.
It's pleasing to have been contributing to Cuffelinks since the start in 2013. Fundamentally sensible and technically useful articles again dominated in 2017, but five in particular stay in the memory due to their special insights.
The intuition is that stock markets should perform in line with an economy's GDP, but a look at the last decade shows little relationship, and perhaps the opposite is more accurate.
The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.
Jim Simons has achieved breathtaking returns of 62% p.a. over 33 years, a track record like no other, yet he remains little known to the public. Here’s how he’s done it, and the lessons that can be applied to our own investing.
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.
Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.