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25 June 2022
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Consensus growth forecasts are far too conservative, and the Coalition’s political challenges and the Budget’s economic windfalls will likely spark additional fiscal spending later in 2021, giving further boosts.
A broader rebound beyond tech companies is likely to accelerate. Structural reforms may regain momentum after COVID and a lower risk premium is warranted for emerging markets equities compared with prior crises.
We need to think hard about how we work and live in the future. How do governments, health gurus, individuals, politicians, businesses and social groups need to act in 2021, both in dealing with COVID and thereafter?
There are plenty of reasons for pessimism as the market has recovered too strongly, but quality stocks with good earnings growth and strong cash generation and balance sheets are still available.
One of Australia's senior economists expects local cash rates to remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020, and consumer spending looks weak. By 2020, US growth may be down below 2%.
Since the 1950s, predictions on the death of economic cycles have come and gone, and each time they have been wrong. But since no two cycles are the same, we ought to look for what’s different this time.
It's pleasing to have been contributing to Cuffelinks since the start in 2013. Fundamentally sensible and technically useful articles again dominated in 2017, but five in particular stay in the memory due to their special insights.
The intuition is that stock markets should perform in line with an economy's GDP, but a look at the last decade shows little relationship, and perhaps the opposite is more accurate.
The housing sector tends to go through periods of overbuilding and underbuilding, but there is evidence that the forces are currently near a balance.
A 'Goldilocks economy' is one which runs neither too hot nor too cold. A combination of steady global growth, benign inflation and easy monetary conditions is carrying share markets to higher levels.
Most commentators believe there is a positive correlation between economic growth and share market performance. The data disproves this, at a world and country level and over time.
The Australian economy is changing, with new jobs in services, retail and health replacing the lost jobs in manufacturing. These trends are important for investors to find the successful companies of the future.
With 700 Australians retiring every day, retirement income solutions are more important than ever. Why do millions of retirees eligible for a more tax-efficient pension account hold money in accumulation?
A fund manager argues it is immoral to deny poor countries access to relatively cheap energy from fossil fuels. Wealthy countries must recognise the transition is a multi-decade challenge and continue to invest.
Equity investing comes with volatility that makes many retirees uncomfortable. A focus on income which is less volatile than share prices, and quality companies delivering robust earnings, offers more reassurance.
At around 10.30pm on Saturday night, Scott Morrison called Anthony Albanese to concede defeat in the 2022 election. As voting continued the next day, it became likely that Labor would reach the magic number of 76 seats to form a majority government.
The Transfer Balance Cap limits the tax concessions available in super pension funds, removing the need for large, compulsory drawdowns. Plus there are no requirements to draw money out of an accumulation fund.
Using the nine dimensions of well-being used by the OECD, and dividing Australians into Baby Boomers, Generation Xers or Millennials, it is surprisingly easy to identify the winners and losers for most dimensions.