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Saturday, 18 September 2021
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Consensus growth forecasts are far too conservative, and the Coalition’s political challenges and the Budget’s economic windfalls will likely spark additional fiscal spending later in 2021, giving further boosts.
A broader rebound beyond tech companies is likely to accelerate. Structural reforms may regain momentum after COVID and a lower risk premium is warranted for emerging markets equities compared with prior crises.
We need to think hard about how we work and live in the future. How do governments, health gurus, individuals, politicians, businesses and social groups need to act in 2021, both in dealing with COVID and thereafter?
There are plenty of reasons for pessimism as the market has recovered too strongly, but quality stocks with good earnings growth and strong cash generation and balance sheets are still available.
One of Australia's senior economists expects local cash rates to remain unchanged through 2019 and 2020, and consumer spending looks weak. By 2020, US growth may be down below 2%.
Since the 1950s, predictions on the death of economic cycles have come and gone, and each time they have been wrong. But since no two cycles are the same, we ought to look for what’s different this time.
It's pleasing to have been contributing to Cuffelinks since the start in 2013. Fundamentally sensible and technically useful articles again dominated in 2017, but five in particular stay in the memory due to their special insights.
The intuition is that stock markets should perform in line with an economy's GDP, but a look at the last decade shows little relationship, and perhaps the opposite is more accurate.
The housing sector tends to go through periods of overbuilding and underbuilding, but there is evidence that the forces are currently near a balance.
A 'Goldilocks economy' is one which runs neither too hot nor too cold. A combination of steady global growth, benign inflation and easy monetary conditions is carrying share markets to higher levels.
Most commentators believe there is a positive correlation between economic growth and share market performance. The data disproves this, at a world and country level and over time.
The Australian economy is changing, with new jobs in services, retail and health replacing the lost jobs in manufacturing. These trends are important for investors to find the successful companies of the future.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.