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3 February 2026
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Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.
Much has been made of how US markets, especially the NASDAQ, have significantly outperformed the ASX over the past two decades. History suggests the pendulum will swing back once again in Australia's favour.
The second quarter US earnings season has wrapped up, with a record 82% of S&P 500 firms beating earnings estimates. As tailwinds fade, Q3 may reveal whether AI momentum can offset rising economic headwinds.
Consumer spending directly impacts corporate earnings, sector performance and market sentiment. The latest data from different economies uncover risks and pockets of opportunity for investors.
After a stellar 2025 to date for equities, warning signs - from speculative froth to stretched valuations - suggest the market’s calm may be masking deeper fragilities. Strategic rebalancing feels increasingly timely.
As the US debt ceiling looms, the usual warnings about a potential crash in bond and equity markets have started to appear. Investors can take confidence from history but should keep an eye on two main indicators.
European equities are surging ahead of the U.S this year, driven by strong earnings, undervaluation, and fiscal stimulus. With quality founder-led firms and a strengthening Euro, Europe may be the next global investment hotspot.
Major equity indices will need to defy history if they are to deliver anything like the returns of recent years. In a rapidly changing environment, investors may need to look further afield for the next winners.
In 2024, markets were buoyed by decent economic growth and US rate cuts, even as valuations became stretched. This year, more resilient portfolios may be needed to tackle risks from higher bond yields and market concentration.
A nascent theme today is that the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned as inflation and economic growth moderate. This broadens the potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.
Magellan's Head of Global Equities, Arvid Streimann, thinks that although stock price momentum will slow next year, cyclical companies will lead the pack. He outlines the risks to his forecast and the stocks he likes best.
As the S&P 500 rips to new highs, the US now accounts for a staggering two-thirds of the world equity index. This looks at how America came to dwarf other markets, and what could change to slow or halt its momentum.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.