Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / Forecasting

Forecasting

1-12 out of 25 results.

Australia's economic report card heading into the polls

Our economy grew by a nominal rate of 7% per annum from 2017 to 2024, but it benefited from the largesse of fiscal and monetary policies, both of which are now fading. We need a new, credible economic growth agenda.

Read this before you go all in on US equities

US equities rule global markets, but history is littered with examples of markets that seemed invincible — until they weren’t. Diversification will be key for investor portfolios going forwards.

Federal budget forecast errors need greater scrutiny

The discrepancies that are appearing between Treasury budget forecasts and actual outcomes need closer examination. The inaccurate forecasts are impacting economic projections and investment decisions.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Howard Marks on the best opportunities in 2024

In his latest memo, Marks outlines how today’s markets are dramatically different from those of the past 40 years, that equity valuations are mildly expensive, and the most compelling opportunities for investors.

Investors don't forecast well, and that's good news

All the evidence suggests investors can't forecast well. While that might appear to be bad news, if you dig a little deeper, it can create opportunities for those investors that are prepared to think differently.

Investment forecasts unreliable in unpredictable times

We use weather forecasts to inform our planning but they do not entirely drive decision making. The same should happen with investment outlooks. A globally diversified portfolio will serve best in unpredictable times.

10 key investment themes for 2022

The end of the year is approaching fast, when investors consider rebalancing their portfolios. What are the big themes in a market facing the threat of inflation and rising rates for the first time in many years?

Why market forecasts matter to long-term investors

Investors should prepare for a decade of returns below historical averages for both stocks and bonds. Over the next decade, equity returns may be tiny compared with the lofty double-digit returns of recent years.

What do you expect from your portfolio today?

Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.

Investing is like water, but what the hell is water?

Markets always deliver delusions and manias, but there's something unique now. Investors do not speak a common language at a time when there's more money for speculative ideas than ever. Check the water.

Where will investment returns come from in 2021?

There are only three sources of returns when investing in companies. Whether an investment delivers on dividends, earnings or valuation expansion determines performance, and the contribution of each varies over time.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Pros and cons of Labor's home batteries scheme

Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

4 ways to take advantage of the market turmoil

Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.