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Forecasting

1-12 out of 15 results.

Investing is like water, but what the hell is water?

Markets always deliver delusions and manias, but there's something unique now. Investors do not speak a common language at a time when there's more money for speculative ideas than ever. Check the water.

Where will investment returns come from in 2021?

There are only three sources of returns when investing in companies. Whether an investment delivers on dividends, earnings or valuation expansion determines performance, and the contribution of each varies over time.

Investment forecasts: foresight or folly?

It's easy to find eminent market experts with completely opposite views on the market at any moment. View the forecasts of investment gurus for what they are: guesstimates. Only you can decide what's right for you.

10 key themes for 2021

A summary of 10 investing themes for 2021 including early-cycle opportunities, populism, digital transformation and supply chains, plus the outlook for equities, fixed interest and alternatives.

2021 economic and market outlook report

The next phase of recovery depends on immunity to COVID and reduced consumer reluctance to engage in normal economic activities. What are the various scenarios and how do they influence a balanced portfolio?

Howard Marks on uncertainty, forecasting and doubt

Global markets are more uncertain today than at any other time in our lives. Nobody knows the future but we must make decisions about it. A solid dose of intellectual humility is essential.

The unreliability of inflation forecasting

Inflation and deflation forces exist and the dominant outcome is uncertain at the moment, but equity investors should consider inflation risk within their asset allocation framework.

This time it really is different … or not

A one sentence stream of consciousness born after listening to too many 'what-ifs' and 'on-the-other-hands' will leave you sitting firmly on the fence, which is neither a comfortable nor useful position.

Howard Marks on expert opinions as a coin toss

The memo from Howard Marks titled 'Expert Opinion' explains how forecasting is more art than science, and we give too much weight to many expert opinions which are little more than a 50-50 guess.

Zip your wallet against economic forecasts

Given how difficult it is to forecast statistics such as GDP, employment or inflation, investors should ignore macroeconomics. Even if forecasts were accurate, they are not very useful for valuing shares.

Don’t sweat the big stuff

Too many variables affect the market and economies, and most are unforeseeable or overly complex to understand. Instead of wasting time on such macro issues, it's better to focus on your investment edge.

Do 'January' results foretell the full year for equities?

A final look at the 'January effect' to analyse whether the market's first month performance predicts the share market's likely year-end returns, and why Australia is different from the US.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Unexpected results in our retirement income survey

Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.

Three all-time best tables for every adviser and investor

It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.

The looming excess of housing and why prices will fall

Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.

Five stocks that have worked well in our portfolios

Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.

10 reasons wealthy homeowners shouldn't receive welfare

The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?

Six COVID opportunist stocks prospering in adversity

Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.

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