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28 February 2026
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Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.
Gold has had a remarkable 2025, with the spot price likely to post its strongest return since 1971. This explores the key factors that will shape the outlook for the yellow metal next year, and long-term.
Concerns over the US fiscal position seem to have overtaken geopolitics and interest rates as the biggest tailwind for gold prices. Even if a debt crisis doesn't seem likely, there could be more support on the way.
Shares trade at steep valuations despite higher risks of a recession. Amid doubts that a 60/40 portfolio can still provide enough protection through times of market stress, gold's record shines bright.
Following the gold price's recent surge, headlines have popped up with increasingly bold predictions - US$5,000, even US$20,000 an ounce? This looks at the fundamentals and the credibility of these bullish predictions.
Gold prices hit new recent highs, driven by a stronger euro, tariff concerns, and steady ETF buying – all while the precious metal’s fundamental backdrop remains solid amid a shifting global economic landscape.
Gold mining stocks outperformed in 2024 and are expected to do well in 2025. At this point in the rally, it's worth considering what has driven gold prices higher and why miners could still have some catching up to do.
Last year, gold surged 38% higher in Australian dollars, fuelled by investment demand and global risks. This year's outlook suggests potential for continued gold strength amid geopolitical uncertainties and currency vulnerabilities.
Gold reached multiple highs in March, closing the month above US$2,200/oz. Looking forward, central bank demand remains robust but gold remains sensitive towards bond yield volatility in the short term.
US bank balance sheets are expanding again, driving increasing money supply that is finding its way into markets. It means inflation is likely to remain high, and inflation hedges like Bitcoin and gold may continue to do well.
In 2021, the gold price failed to sustain its strong rise since 2018, although it recovered after early losses. But where does gold sit in a world of inflation, rising rates and a competitor like Bitcoin?
Multiple factors have seen gold fall in 2021, despite the rise in inflation. But given gold has performed strongly across longer periods of higher inflation, gold may benefit under the current inflation outlook.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.