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23 January 2026
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What is the X-Factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2025? It's time to select the winner.
The ASX seems a market split between the haves and have nots, or those with growth and momentum and those without. In this environment, opportunity favours those willing to look beyond the obvious.
Economic experts, including the RBA, get plenty of forecasts wrong, but that doesn't make such forecasts worthless. The key isn't to predict perfectly – it's to understand the range of possibilities and plan accordingly.
The US dollar’s overvaluation, weaker fundamentals, and crowded positioning point to further downside. Diversifying into non-US equities and emerging market debt may offer opportunities for global investors.
The US economy faces an unprecedented clash in leadership styles, but the President and Fed Chair could both take a lesson from the other. Not least because the fiscal and monetary authorities need to work together.
Gold prices hit new recent highs, driven by a stronger euro, tariff concerns, and steady ETF buying – all while the precious metal’s fundamental backdrop remains solid amid a shifting global economic landscape.
Strategist Russell Napier says central banks have lifted interest rates too far and a deflationary shock is coming. He believes Governments will react radically and investors should avoid bonds and US stocks, and own more gold.
The current difficulties confronting housing policy partially stem from an explosion of mortgage debt. We've engineered a price for housing that will cause a severe problem for future generations – if it isn't addressed.
By keeping interest rates on hold this month, the RBA expects that rate increases to date will eventually weigh on consumers and house prices. Is the RBA early or is it wrong, and what are the implicatons for markets?
Although the headlines focus elsewhere, the major conclusions of the Reserve Bank Review describe the need for a complete overhaul of the culture and structure. The culture club within the Bank will make you cry.
There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.
The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.
Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
I’ve been comparing property and shares for decades and while both have their place, the differences are stark. When tax, costs, and liquidity are weighed, property looks less compelling than its reputation suggests.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.