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30 April 2025

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Mapping future US market returns

Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.

The case for and against US stock market exceptionalism

The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.

Emerging market equities are ripe with opportunity

Emerging markets offer compelling value compared to history and the stretched valuations of developed market equities. Investors can benefit from three big tailwinds, but only if they are selective.

Why an active fund should not perform like its benchmark

Every fund is measured against a benchmark, but active managers earn their fees by taking strong views contrary to an index. It requires fortitude in the short term as interviews with Orbis and Allan Gray show.

Why emerging markets are difficult for index funds

Many investors are looking to emerging markets due to stretched valuations in developed markets, but there are particular reasons why choosing a passive ETF in emerging markets may not be optimal.

Two big reasons to go global

Although equities are widely-held by Australian investors, there is a strong domestic bias that gives many portfolios high sector concentrations. Better diversification requires a global focus.  

Retail investors can invest like institutions

Investment solutions that were once only available to the big end of town are now available to anyone willing to learn the same lessons, research the available products and try some new approaches.

Why has the Value investing style struggled?

The past few years have seen strong performance for Momentum and Growth strategies but poor outcomes for some with a Value bias. But is Value really due for a comeback as many people are arguing?

Baggy Green summit was bottom of GFC

After test matches resumed in 1993, Australia held the upper hand and peaked at the bottom of the GFC. In stock markets, South Africa is edging it in US$ terms but killing it in local currencies.

The hot spots in commercial real estate

Non-residential real estate performed strongly in 2017, but much of this return came from cap rate (yield) compression. Going forward, investors will need to focus more on income growth and sector allocation.

Index inclusion delayed for China but positives abound

Although the leading index-provider, MSCI, recently decided to delay accepting China A-shares into its emerging markets and other indexes, the long-term impact is likely to be minimal before these shares are included.

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Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Pros and cons of Labor's home batteries scheme

Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

4 ways to take advantage of the market turmoil

Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.

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