Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.
Wednesday, 12 August 2020
Recently trending After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this partyAustralian house prices: Part 2, the bigger picture How to handle the riskiest company results in historyAustralian house prices: Part 1, how worried should we be?Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 367
Reader: "The BEST in the game because of diversity and not aligned to financial products. Stands above all the noise."
Reader: " Finding a truly independent and interesting read has been magical for me. Please keep it up and don't change!"
Scott Pape, author of The Barefoot Investor: "I'm an avid reader of Cuffelinks. Thanks for the wonderful resource you have here, it really is first class."
Rob Henshaw: "When I open my computer each day it's the first link I click - a really great read."
David Goldschmidt, Chartered Accountant: "I find this a really excellent newsletter. The best I get. Keep up the good work!"
Ian Kelly, CFP, BTACS Financial Services: "Probably the best source of commentary and information I have seen over the past 20 years."
John Egan, Egan Associates: "My heartiest congratulations. Your panel of contributors is very impressive and keep your readers fully informed."
Reader: "It's excellent so please don't pollute the content with boring mainstream financial 'waffle' and adverts for stuff we don't want!"
Reader: "An island of professionalism in an ocean of shallow self-interest. Well done!"
Australian Investors Association: "Australia's foremost independent financial newsletter for professionals and self-directed investors."
Reader: "I can quickly sort the items that I am interested in, then research them more fully. It is also a regular reminder that I need to do this."
Ian Silk, CEO, AustralianSuper: "It has become part of my required reading: quality thinking, and (mercifully) to the point."
Andrew Buchan, Partner, HLB Mann Judd: "I have told you a thousand times it's the best newsletter."
Don Stammer, leading Australian economist: "Congratulations to all associated. It deserves the good following it has."
Vishal Teckchandani, Content Editor, nabtrade: "Exceptional investment literature of the highest possible quality."
Jonathan Hoyle, CEO, Stanford Brown: "A fabulous publication. The only must-read weekly publication for the Australian wealth management industry."
Reader: "I subscribe to two newsletters. This is my first read of the week. Thank you. Excellent and please keep up the good work!"
Reader: "Love it, just keep doing what you are doing. It is the right length too, any longer and it might become a bit overwhelming."
Reader: "Keep it up - the independence is refreshing and is demonstrated by the variety of well credentialed commentators."
Noel Whittaker, author and financial adviser: "A fabulous weekly newsletter that is packed full of independent financial advice."
John Pearce, Chief Investment Officer, Unisuper: "Out of the (many many) investmentrelated emails I get, Cuffelinks is one that I always open."
Reader: "Great resource. Cuffelinks is STILL the one and only weekly newsletter I regularly read."
Steve: "The best that comes into our world each week. This is the only one that is never, ever canned before fully being reviewed by yours truly."
Reader: "Best innovation I have seen whilst an investor for 25 years. The writers are brilliant. A great publication which I look forward to."
Reader: "Congratulations on a great focussed news source. Australia has a dearth of good quality unbiased financial and wealth management news."
Reader: "Carry on as you are - well done. The average investor/SMSF trustee needs all the help they can get."
Eleanor Dartnall, AFA Adviser of the Year, 2014: "Our clients love your newsletter. Your articles are avidly read by advisers and they learn a great deal."
Reader: "Is one of very few places an investor can go and not have product rammed down their throat. Love your work!"
With historic falls in greenhouse gas emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, we have a unique opportunity to construct a recovery that ensures a stronger economy while minimising carbon emissions.
Even when the virus is finally contained, the business landscape will look very different. A critical issue is the ability of consumers to find product substitutes. Many people like what they find.
Millions of inexperienced traders have entered global equity markets since the end of March, fuelled by hype in a rapidly-rising market. What is happening and how are they having an impact?
Markets always come back to fundamentals, valuations and liquidity, even when faced with a global pandemic. The key question is whether liquidity can hold up the market as the economic storm hits.
It seems counterintuitive, but share prices rose during 17 (85%) of the 20 economic recessions in Australia in the past 150 years as markets tend to anticipate the bad times and recover early.
Too many investors are lumping all companies together in the current crisis, but some businesses will emerge in good shape with recovering revenues, while others are disadvantaged permanently.
If a vaccine immediately emerges, equities would rally to an all-time high, implying a better outlook than pre-COVID with absolutely no damage done to the economy. It doesn't make sense.
The restaurant business has always operated on thin margins, and home delivery doesn't make it better. But most of the delivery platforms are also struggling, and an industry shake-up is underway.
The deteriorating mood will bring changes that will have profound economic, financial, social and political changes that can be grouped into new, accelerated, busted and possible trends.
Reductions in loan repayments, either deferrals or failing to opt out of lower payments, seem like a good idea. But they are expensive and should only be adopted if the borrower needs the money.
It might be a 'black swan' event, but the market is down only 15% since its peak. Looking back at an article written in 2008 reveals the uncertainty at the time was similar to the unknowns now.
Free spending by governments risks unsustainably higher debt levels, as deficits matter and must be paid for. Here are four steps investors should consider as previous techniques may not work.
Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.
There is good reason to believe the negatives will continue to outweigh the positives over the next 12 to 18 months. There is more concern about house prices than the short-term indicators suggest.
It is better to miss a results bounce and buy after the company has delivered than it is to step on a landmine. With such uncertainty, avoid FOMO by following these result season investing tips.
Three key indicators are useful for predicting the short-term outlook for house prices, although tighter lockdowns make the outlook gloomier. There is enough doubt to create cause for concern.
There is a similarity between the current health crisis and economic crises of the past. For COVID-19, record amounts of biotech funding from government agencies and private companies are looking for a vaccine. Likewise, central banks once struggled treating recessions but the 'vaccine' now is record amounts of financial stimulus to ensure liquidity. While the world awaits a COVID treatment, markets are purring along, at least until side effects hit.
Imagine you had perfect foresight about COVID-19 at the start of the year. You correctly foresaw that the global pandemic would kill over 700,000 among 20 million infections by August. In Australia, borders would close, cities would be locked down, most mortgagors would be on income support and companies would be allowed to trade while insolvent. You then had to guess how much the stock market would fall. Would you say about 10%?