Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 534

The RBA’s QE losses

Accounting losses from a pandemic inspired bond buying spree has wiped out the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) equity and more, pushing its balance sheet into negative equity territory.

Its 2022/23 annual report shows a loss of $6 billon for the financial year, which following the $36.7 billion loss in the previous year, now has the bank’s liabilities $17.7 billion in excess of its assets (see chart). But being a government entity that can create money to pay its bills, it remains secure.

How it happened

How did the RBA get into this predicament? To understand why the RBA is losing money, we need to follow the flow of money building up to the losses.

When the pandemic exploded in early 2020, the federal government commenced fiscal support packages such as JobKeeper, raising government debt significantly. At the same time, the RBA introduced unprecedented monetary stimulus including ultra-low interest rates and increased commercial bank reserves via quantitative easing (QE).

When the federal government raises debt, it is a loan to the government from the private sector via commercial banks. The banks transfer deposits to Treasury, and a matching liability of government debt arises. That debt is recorded as an asset for the banks, offset by the loaned funds it transferred to Treasury. Treasury pays interest on the government debt to the banks. The resulting balance sheet movements are depicted:

When QE occurs, it is mostly seen as money creation. But it could also be construed as a loan, this time from the private sector to the RBA. Being the “borrower", the RBA gains an asset and a liability, in the form of government debt and commercial bank deposits respectively. The deposits having been created electronically by the RBA, which only central banks can do. The RBA pays interest on those deposits to the banks. Again, the balance sheet movements:

When QE and government debt raising occurs simultaneously, the commercial banks' balance sheets net out, leaving:

If Treasury then transfers its deposits to the private sector to fund say a JobKeeper scheme, then the RBA will have effectively financed that fiscal spending via electronically created deposits. That financing will remain in place until such time that the RBA pays back the government debt it “borrowed” from the banks, and its self-created liabilities are extinguished.

The impact of interest rate rises

The illustrative RBA balance sheet built above reveals a double whammy when interest rates rise. On the assets side, the value of the debt it holds falls with rising interest rates. And on the liabilities side, higher interest rates translate into higher servicing costs on the commercial bank deposits created in the QE process.

With the RBA purchasing some $330 billion worth of government bonds during the QE program at a coupon of around just 0.25%, a rapid rise to 4.1% in the official cash rate has wreaked havoc on the mark-to-market value of its portfolio. And what began as a cost of just 0.1% on the increased bank deposits, has blown out substantially with 4.1% now being paid.

With less than ten per cent of its bonds holdings having matured thus far, the RBA at this stage does not plan to actively sell bonds to wind down its portfolio faster, which would realise capital losses. All the while recognising the risk of further losses if interest rates continue to rise.

This situation is not confined to Australia, with central banks in other advanced economies suffering extensive losses with their QE programs.

The lessons

The question might therefore be asked, did central banks go into the QE caper with eyes wide shut, given the poor financial outcomes of high inflation, rapidly increasing interest rates, and impaired central bank balance sheets?

Many would say that losses should have been expected when buying low-yielding bonds, and when interest rates can really go only one way, up. And that it was not such a good idea after all. While others would say that the stimulus kept businesses afloat, unemployment low, and that it was all for the greater economic good.

In the fullness of time, governments will need to balance whether significant monetary stimulus is appropriate in times of global turmoil, being mindful that there really is no such thing as a free lunch.

 

Tony Dillon is a freelance writer and former actuary. This article is general information and does not consider the circumstances of any investor.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

This 'forgotten' inflation indicator signals better times ahead

This vital yet "forgotten" indicator of inflation holds good news

Former RBA Governor on why interest rates won't come down soon

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

Latest Updates

Shares

Why the ASX may be more expensive than the US market

On every valuation metric, the US appears significantly more expensive than Australia. However, American companies are also much more profitable than ours, which means the ASX may be more overvalued than most think.

Economy

No one holds the government to account on spending

Government spending is out of control and there's little sign that Labor will curb it. We need enforceable rules on spending and an empowered budget office to ensure governments act responsibly with taxpayers money.

Retirement

Why a traditional retirement may be pushed back 25 years

The idea of stopping work during your sixties is a man-made concept from another age. In a world where many jobs are knowledge based and can be done from anywhere, it may no longer make much sense at all.

Shares

The quiet winners of AI competition

The tech giants are in a money-throwing contest to secure AI supremacy and may fall short of high investor expectations. The companies supplying this arms race could offer a more attractive way to play AI adoption.

Preparing for aged care

Whether for yourself or a family member, it’s never too early to start thinking about aged care. This looks at the best ways to plan ahead, as well as the changes coming to aged care from November 1 this year.

Infrastructure

Renewable energy investment: gloom or boom?

ESG investing has fallen out of favour with many investors, and Trump's anti-green policies haven't helped. Yet, renewables investment is still surging, which could prove a boon for infrastructure companies.

Investing

The enduring wisdom of John Bogle in five quotes

From buying the whole market to controlling emotions, John Bogle’s legendary advice reminds investors that patience, discipline, and low costs are the keys to investment success in any market environment.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.