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6 July 2025
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Accounting losses from a pandemic inspired bond buying spree have wiped out the RBA's equity and more, pushing its balance sheet into negative equity territory. How did it happen and what lessons can be learned?
Deputy Governor, Michelle Bullock, explained last week why the RBA bought $280 billion of bonds in its QE programme, but are we paying the price for this stimulus as rising inflation shocks central bankers?
Not long ago, globalisation seemed on a relentless growth path, promising to bring everyone into a global economy. But with politics, pandemics and the Ukraine war, 'geoeconomics’ will lower living standards for all.
To add to the world's problems, high inflation is exposing Europe's frailties and poorer nations have no independent monetary policies to help their economies. Core problems cannot always be kicked down the road.
The US Federal Reserve's first foray into quantitative tightening from 2017 fizzled. Can asset-selling – aka money destroying – help fight inflation this time around?
With bond rates and Reserve Bank actions driving equity markets and inflationary expectations, it pays to understand what is really happening in both central bank and commercial bank balance sheets.
It's tempting to focus on the negatives of the pandemic, the US election, the China/US cold war and inequality. But technology is delivering benefits that even wealthy people in the past could not have imagined.
Quantum computers have a theoretical ability to calculate millions of possibilities in seconds, yet it may take time before we see a breakthrough in the practical applications of sub-atomic computing.
Prolonging a recovery with stimulus could lead to a worse slump later. Even today, policymakers are haunted by actions taken in 1937 which led to a loss of production and jobs and a falling GDP.
The RBA is likely to first exhaust conventional easing by cutting the cash rate to 0.5% by year end before deploying unconventional measures. Negative interest rates are unlikely.
Most investors think the relationship between interest rates and prices only applies to fixed rate bonds, but the rate impact on discounting future cash flows applies to all income-producing assets.
It's not long ago when Australian bond rates were well above US bond rates, and now they are the same in the 10 years. Factors affecting Australian monetary policy will not mirror US rises through 2018.
The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.
You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.
The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.
The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.
Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.
Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.