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Property Bubble

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Lessons from Australia’s largest property busts

After three decades of phenomenal growth nationally, it seemed as though Australian house prices would never go down, until they did last year. Here is a look at previous property downturns and what we might learn from them.

The most important industry globally which few understand

Many investors see Chinese property as an asset bubble that is popping. We think that assessment is incorrect and believe large, lowly indebted Chinese property developers offer a contrarian opportunity.

House prices surge but falls are common and coming

We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.

Noel's share winners and loser plus budget reality check

Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.

Residential exuberance usually ends in tears

An industry veteran told clients last week that demand for investment property has fallen off a cliff, and even price discounts were not shifting stock. Take great care what you buy.

Risks to banks at end of construction boom

Australian banks are vulnerable to a collapse in the local housing market due to an overexposure to high-rise developments, interest-only loans and high loan-to-value ratios. The main uncertainty is the timing.

7 factors affecting the residential property outlook

There are seven key factors that have had a positive influence on residential housing prices over recent years, but only one of these factors is expected to remain positive over the next five years.

Where to from here for house prices?

After a strong run for house prices, changes in bank and regulatory policies will take some steam out of the market. For the longer term good of the market, it may be better to have a pause while fundamental values catch up.

House affordability, where are the institutions?

Despite having one of the world’s largest pools of capital through the superannuation system, Australia’s institutional investors, including listed trusts, have shunned investment in private rental accommodation.

Most viewed in recent weeks

2024/25 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.

The greatest investor you’ve never heard of

Jim Simons has achieved breathtaking returns of 62% p.a. over 33 years, a track record like no other, yet he remains little known to the public. Here’s how he’s done it, and the lessons that can be applied to our own investing.

Five months on from cancer diagnosis

Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.

Is Australia ready for its population growth over the next decade?

Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 552 with weekend update

Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.

  • 21 March 2024

Why LICs may be close to bottoming

Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.

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