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4 March 2026
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China has flooded the world with electric cars and solar panels to offset the economic drag from a weak domestic property market. How long can this go on, and what are the implications for commodities and Australia?
The second quarter US earnings season has wrapped up, with a record 82% of S&P 500 firms beating earnings estimates. As tailwinds fade, Q3 may reveal whether AI momentum can offset rising economic headwinds.
The Fed could soon be prompted to join other central banks in cutting interest rates. This would have ripple effects across global fixed income markets and provide an especially attractive backdrop for emerging market bonds.
Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.
The green transition in the US has made great progress in recent years, but the wheels are falling off. This is largely due to economic pressures, lack of financing, and the new tariffs instituted by Trump.
Equity markets have been lashed by Trump's tariff policies, yet REITs have outperformed. Not only are they largely unaffected by tariffs, but they offer a unique combination of growth, sound fundamentals, and value.
The boss of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, UniSuper’s John Pearce, says Trump has declared an economic war and he’ll be reducing his US stock exposure over time. Should you follow suit?
The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.
Gold mining stocks outperformed in 2024 and are expected to do well in 2025. At this point in the rally, it's worth considering what has driven gold prices higher and why miners could still have some catching up to do.
The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today.
The global economy faces renewed protectionism with President Trump's tariffs sparking retaliatory actions and causing market volatility. Historically, quality companies have shown resilience amid trade tensions and uncertainty.
The 2015 Paris Agreement is in jeopardy after the withdrawal of the US and Trump announcing plans to bolster fossil fuels production. It has significant implications for the push towards net zero emissions, including for Australia.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.