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Lessons from 100 years of growing US debt

As the US debt ceiling looms, the usual warnings about a potential crash in bond and equity markets have started to appear. Investors can take confidence from history but should keep an eye on two main indicators.

Tariffs are a smokescreen to Trump's real endgame

Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.

Should America follow Australia with a sovereign wealth fund?

While appointing a seasoned banker to lead a US sovereign wealth fund sounds promising, the plan itself could expose the country to massive risks, market distortions, and dangerous expansions of presidential power. 

REITs: a haven in a Trumpian world?

Equity markets have been lashed by Trump's tariff policies, yet REITs have outperformed. Not only are they largely unaffected by tariffs, but they offer a unique combination of growth, sound fundamentals, and value.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 606 with weekend update

  • 10 April 2025
  • 6

The boss of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, UniSuper’s John Pearce, says Trump has declared an economic war and he’ll be reducing his US stock exposure over time. Should you follow suit?

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

100 years of tariff lessons

The global economy faces renewed protectionism with President Trump's tariffs sparking retaliatory actions and causing market volatility. Historically, quality companies have shown resilience amid trade tensions and uncertainty. 

Is the Paris Agreement on climate change dead?

The 2015 Paris Agreement is in jeopardy after the withdrawal of the US and Trump announcing plans to bolster fossil fuels production. It has significant implications for the push towards net zero emissions, including for Australia.

A reluctant investor’s guide to understanding bitcoin

As every aspect of our lives has been transformed by digitisation, the changing nature of money and currencies should come as no surprise. But while bitcoin is here to stay, many investors still lack a clear grasp of what it is. 

How will stocks fare with a smaller US government?

Less government involvement in the economy and markets is long overdue. But investors need to consider what a reduced government role may mean for the profitability of businesses that are unable to offset rising cost pressures.

The 2020 US presidential elections

The US is days away from a presidential election with major repercussions for economic policy and investments in the US and the world. Views from First Sentier Investors and BNP Paribas Asset Management.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Raising the GST to 15%

Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.

7 examples of how the new super tax will be calculated

You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.

The revolt against Baby Boomer wealth

The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Are franking credits hurting Australia’s economy?

Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.

Here's what should replace the $3 million super tax

With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains. 

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