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Wednesday, 29 September 2021
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The US is days away from a presidential election with major repercussions for economic policy and investments in the US and the world. Views from First Sentier Investors and BNP Paribas Asset Management.
Central bank independence was an appropriate solution when inflation was a threat. In today’s low-inflation, low-growth and high-debt world, even central banks doubt their level of influence.
Even the experts concede that the more you know, the less you can be sure. Donald Trump is playing a game of brinkmanship with the trade wars, and it could end badly. Or not.
Tariffs are often seen as a negative for global trade. However, for road, rail, and port operators, tariffs may only re-calibrate origins and destinations. Political risk and the typically short life of a tariff also need to be considered.
In the 1970s, bank branches had pistols in the teller drawers and cupboards, but behind the accidents and hilarious stories lies a grim truth that is a warning to Trump's crazy idea to arm teachers.
After many years of disappointment, there is a renewed focus on the US’s need to invest heavily in infrastructure. With investors looking for consistent revenue streams, it's a welcome addition to the asset class.
Growth assets have defied most predictions and performed well six months on from Trump’s election, but what will be the market consequences of a possible impeachment, using history as a guide.
Is it better to position a portfolio with an over-reliance on economic growth expectations, or find companies winning market share, cutting costs, restructuring and acquiring independently of GDP hopes?
Trump’s vision for US trade policy might suit US corporates and Middle America, but the rest of the world will suffer the consequences. Income inequality and environmental setbacks are other unwelcome effects.
US small business expectations are high under a Trump presidency but reality and fundamentals rather than sentiment will need to kick-in soon to justify recent market gains.
President-elect Donald Trump divides opinion, and there is no way of knowing whether the rhetoric that won him the top job will translate into action. Here's a quick look at some implications.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
The survey drew a fantastic 2,000 responses with over 1,000 comments and polar opposite views on what is good policy. Do most people believe the home should be in the age pension asset test, and what do they say?
Critics of franking credits are missing the main point. The taxable income of shareholders/taxpayers must also include the company tax previously paid to the ATO before the dividend was distributed. It is fair.