Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 33

Expect disappointment as values become stretched

It has been a good year in the Australian equity market. As we come to the end of the September 2013 quarter, the ASX300 Accumulation Index has increased by 24% over 12 months - a rate that is more than double the long term annual average of about 11%.

A natural response for many investors is to feel that they should allocate more capital to the market, to avoid missing out on the gains others are enjoying, and this is certainly a mindset that we have noticed recently. With short-term interest rates at record lows, there is no shortage of people who have become frustrated with the returns on cash, and are electing to move money into equities as their term deposits mature.

Don't abandon a disciplined approach

However, this line of thought often leads to decisions that are contrary to those a disciplined investment process would follow. When share prices are rising faster than corporate earnings, it is almost certain that the value available in the market is declining, and ultimately, value is a crucial driver of long term investment performance.

Not surprisingly, an analysis of historical returns shows that when the ASX Index has an unusually good year, the following year is more likely to be below average. This doesn’t always happen of course, but a good run last year is usually a sign that the odds have shifted against you. Our analyses suggest that when the market has performed as well as it has over the past year, the prospects for the year ahead are perhaps 1% dimmer than the 11% average.

When quickly-rising share prices get ahead of underlying values, we may be able to improve our assessment of future prospects if we ignore the share price and try to understand where underlying value sits. If the valuations were very good to begin with, then a year of rising prices may be no cause for alarm.

There are a couple of simple measures that we can look to in assessing value for the market as a whole. In the Australian market, historical analysis indicates that average P/E multiples and dividend yields have provided a useful aggregate value benchmark and an indicator of future return prospects. Let’s consider each of these.

In the case of dividend yields, the average for the All Ordinaries over several decades is around 4%, based on IRESS data. Currently the market sits quite close to this level, at around 4.1%, so on this measure, prospects for the year ahead are no less favourable than they might normally be. However, recall that investors have been demanding yield in recent times, and in many cases boards of directors have responded with increased payout ratios. Dividend yield may not be an accurate reflection of the underlying earnings capacity of the businesses, and it may be wise to be cautious in using it as a yardstick for value.

Potential for disappoinment

Turning to P/E ratios, the long run average for the All Ordinaries (again, based on IRESS data) lies at around 15x. Currently, the market sits at 17x, some 10-15% higher. This suggests that following the strong run recently, the market may now have moved to the slightly expensive side. At this level, our analysis indicates that the prospects for the year ahead may be around 2% less favourable than the 11% norm.

These reductions of 1-2% per year may seem small, and well worth accepting in the context of cash rates that are sitting close to the rate of inflation – and we’d probably have to agree with that. The real question is whether equities offer a sufficient risk premium. If the market offered reasonable value at the start of the recent run, it may have some way to go before pricing becomes a significant issue.

However, if the market continues to perform strongly, it will almost certainly be sowing the seeds for disappointment some way down the track, and investors need to guard against becoming ever more positive as valuations become increasingly tenuous.

Investors tend to manage their exposure to equities with one eye in the rear view mirror, and this has a significant impact on their investment returns over the long run. The effect of systematically investing more when the market has become expensive, and less when the market has become cheap, can bake in a level of underperformance that compounds over time.

Having a disciplined approach to valuation, and selling shares when the crowd is cheering them on can be very difficult to do – but in the long run the benefits are real.

 

Roger Montgomery is the founder and Chief Investment Officer at The Montgomery Fund, and author of the bestseller, ‘Value.able‘.

 


 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

Behavioural reasons why we ignore life annuities

'FOMO' is driving residential property prices, not yields

Invest like Buffett? Diversification, Part 2

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

5 charts every retiree must see…

Retirement can be daunting for Australians facing financial uncertainty. Understand your goals, longevity challenges, inflation impacts, market risks, and components of retirement income with these crucial charts.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

The hidden property empire of Australia’s politicians

With rising home prices and falling affordability, political leaders preach reform. But asset disclosures show many are heavily invested in property - raising doubts about whose interests housing policy really protects.

Preparing for aged care

Whether for yourself or a family member, it’s never too early to start thinking about aged care. This looks at the best ways to plan ahead, as well as the changes coming to aged care from November 1 this year.

Latest Updates

Shares

Four best-ever charts for every adviser and investor

In any year since 1875, if you'd invested in the ASX, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods. It's just one of the must-have stats that all investors should know.

Our experts on Jim Chalmers' super tax backdown

Labor has caved to pressure on key parts of the Division 296 tax, though also added some important nuances. Here are six experts’ views on the changes and what they mean for you.        

Superannuation

When you can withdraw your super

You can’t freely withdraw your super before 65. You need to meet certain legal conditions tied to your age, whether you’ve retired, or if you're using a transition to retirement option. 

Retirement

A national guide to concession entitlements

Navigating retirement concessions is unnecessarily complex. This outlines a new project to help older Australians find what they’re entitled to - quickly, clearly, and with less stress. 

Property

The psychology of REIT investing

Market shocks and rallies test every investor’s resolve. This explores practical strategies to stay grounded - resisting panic in downturns and FOMO in booms - while focusing on long-term returns. 

Fixed interest

Bonds are copping a bad rap

Bonds have had a tough few years and many investors are turning to other assets to diversify their portfolios. However, bonds can still play a valuable role as a source of income and risk mitigation.

Strategy

Is it time to fire the consultants?

The NSW government is cutting the use of consultants. Universities have also been criticized for relying on consultants as cover for restructuring plans. But are consultants really the problem they're made out to be?

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.