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Stock Market Returns

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Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

Australia’s market boasts a long record of outperformance, but recent results tell a different story. Is the ASX’s lagging performance a temporary setback or evidence that structural forces will keep global markets ahead?

The butterfly effect, index funds, and the rise of mega caps

Index fund inflows to the US market are relatively tiny. Yet a new research paper suggests that they have distorted the size of the market's largest stocks to a surprising degree.

Recession surprise may be in store for the US stock market

Markets are partying like it's 1999, but history suggests that US earnings and economic growth are vulnerable following an interest rate tightening cycle. Investors should prepare their portfolios accordingly.

Australian large caps outperform small caps over long term

Despite the rhetoric from some investors, backing smaller, riskier stocks in the Australian share market will not necessarily give better returns than larger, less volatile stocks.

Where do sustainable returns come from?

The 20% share price gains over the past 12 months have not been supported by similar improvements in company earnings. The market is willing to pay far more for each $1 of profit or dividends.

Why this age of artificial returns must falter

Share markets are booming not because companies are increasing earnings, but because falling interest rates are driving asset prices ever-higher. It is artificial and it will not end well.

Blue skies for consumers, caution for investors

Markets and assets look expensive, but technology at least offers high revenue growth and fast rates of adoption. However, much of that great promise may benefit consumers more than investors.

It was a good year for shares, but what’s ahead?

Stock markets overall had a good year in FY 2016/2017 while bonds and defensives like listed property struggled. Looking to the future, what are the three most-asked questions facing investors?

The ‘January effect’ in stock markets

For many decades, stock market performance in January consistently outperformed other months of the year, but before you start planning an arbitrage strategy, that horse has bolted.

Momentum of winning and losing share prices

A simple strategy of backing prior winners and shorting prior losers has outperformed again in 2015, supporting arguments for 'momentum' investing. It's an example of a factor that can be used across a portfolio.

Who wins? Australians investing in US shares

In part 2 of Who Wins? we look at an Australian investor holding US shares compared with an investment in the local market, plus the relationship between inflation and exchange rates.

Who wins? Australia versus US in local shares

A study of Australia's stock market returns for Australian investors versus the returns from the US stock market for US investors uncovers some interesting trends. Where do the returns come from in each country?

Most viewed in recent weeks

Will you run out of money in retirement?

Fear of running out has become a defining retirement anxiety. Why do some retirees die with substantial wealth while others deplete their nest egg? Evidence suggests the answer is more complicated than we think. 

Why spending more in early retirement can improve lifetime income

Conventional wisdom encourages retirees to preserve superannuation. But if those likely to qualify for the Age Pension later in life spend a little more today, it may deliver higher lifetime income and a more stable retirement.

The investment that sidesteps the new tax traps

Tax rules have changed, but many investors are still using yesterday’s strategies. Insurance bonds may offer advantages for those seeking greater control, tax efficiency and certainty about their wealth.

Testamentary trusts have secured the CGT exemption

Treasury’s latest CGT reform draft delivers a win for testamentary trusts and deceased estates, exempting estate-derived gains from the 30% floor. However, questions on death and divorce rollovers remain unresolved.

Meg on SMSFs: What do we think about reversionary pensions these days?

Reversionary pensions have long been a staple of SMSF estate planning, but are they still the best option? Meg Heffron revisits a once-clear favourite and asks whether changing super rules have shifted the balance.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 674 with weekend update

What begins as appetite, grows into excess and ultimately ends in spectacle. Millions of investors just discovered this the hard way.

  • 6 August 2026

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