Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 505

Five reasons fund managers don't talk about skill

In my career, I have spent hundreds of hours with fund managers attempting to assess their investment approach. When I look back at this, aside from questioning my life choices, the one thing that strikes me is how little fund managers discuss skill. Of course, they talk about past performance (if it is good), but the randomness and chance in financial markets render this a terrible proxy. This is a puzzling situation. Investors in active funds are seeking to identify and pay for skill, but the people managing them seem reticent to mention it.

It has always struck me as odd that in active fund selection, the onus falls heavily upon the allocator to strive to prove that the thing they are buying (skill) exists. Surely the seller of the product should be making that case?

Before exploring the reasons why investment skill is such a rarely discussed topic, it is worth defining terms.

Focus on skills rather than outcomes

Skill exists where we can see a repeatable link between process and outcomes (what we intend to do and the result of our action). We are often guilty of focusing on the second part of this equation – if the result is good, then some skill must be involved. This can be an effective shorthand if the activity is simple (shooting free throws in basketball) or heavily structured with limited randomness in the outcomes (playing chess). It is when things get noisy that the trouble starts.

In activities where the results combine luck and skill, focusing on outcomes alone can lead us astray. The greater the involvement of chance, the greater the need to understand the process that led to the outcome.

This is easier said than done. Focusing on process as much, if not more, than outcomes means retaining conviction and confidence even when headline performance is disappointing. Two things are critical here – time and belief. Extending our time horizon should tilt the balance in favour of skill over luck, but to have the required patience we must (continue to) believe that skill exists.

Imagine we have a biased coin that is likely to come up heads on 52% of flips. We should have more confidence in this edge becoming apparent the greater the sample size. To prove this advantage, we would rather see 10,000 flips than 10. We can think of this as akin to lengthening our time horizon.

The problem is that if after 50 flips the coin has landed showing tails more often than heads, we might start to doubt that the coin is weighted at all.

Even if we possess an edge, we must often sit through periods when results make it look like we do not.

In investing, if skill exists, then it is difficult to identify and, if we do discover it, tough to benefit from. That does not mean we should ignore it. Asset managers are not only selling skill, they are paid a great deal of money on the basis that they possess it. They should probably think about it more than they seem to.

Why don’t they explain their skill?

Here are five reasons why the subject of skill is usually overlooked.

1. Past performance is everything

The industry is obsessed with past performance, and it is so ingrained in how it functions that trying to have nuanced conversations about skill might seem pointless. Strategies with strong past performance sell; trying to evidence skill does not.

2. Stories sell better

Evidence of skill, which might be about the consistency of decision-making through time, is far less compelling and persuasive than captivating stories about an investment theme or star fund manager.

3. Time horizons are too short 

As time horizons in asset management seem to become ever shorter, the relevance of skill diminishes. Nobody operates with a time horizon long enough to even attempt to prove they are skilful.

4. Too much complexity

Looking at past performance is easy, trying to define and evidence skill is complex and messy.

5. Don’t want to know

Let’s assume some active fund managers – but not many – have skill, 20%, perhaps. If I am one of the 80% majority, it is in my interest to actively avoid the question of skill. My odds of a lucrative career are much better relying on random performance fluctuations and trends.

There are many reasons why the notion of skill is rarely discussed in the asset management industry, and all parties are complicit in its neglect. The existence and persistence of skill, however, is the foundation of active fund management and it needs to be talked about more.

If it is being sold, it helps to know what it is.

 

Joe Wiggins is Chief Investment Officer at Fundhouse (UK) and publisher of investment insights through a behavioural science lens at www.behaviouralinvestment.com. His book The Intelligent Fund Investor explores the beliefs and behaviours that lead investors astray, and shows how we can make better decisions.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

Lessons when a fund manager of the year is down 25%

Who dares loses: Buffett on luck, taxes and a challenge

Diversification is not a free lunch

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian house prices close in on world record

Sydney is set to become the world’s most expensive city for housing over the next 12 months, a new report shows. Our other major cities aren’t far behind unless there are major changes to improve housing affordability.

The case for the $3 million super tax

The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.

7 examples of how the new super tax will be calculated

You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.

The revolt against Baby Boomer wealth

The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

The super tax and the defined benefits scandal

Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.

Latest Updates

Planning

Will young Australians be better off than their parents?

For much of Australia’s history, each new generation has been better off than the last: better jobs and incomes as well as improved living standards. A new report assesses whether this time may be different.

Superannuation

The rubbery numbers behind super tax concessions

In selling the super tax, Labor has repeated Treasury claims of there being $50 billion in super tax concessions annually, mostly flowing to high-income earners. This figure is vastly overstated.

Investment strategies

A steady road to getting rich

The latest lists of Australia’s wealthiest individuals show that while overall wealth has continued to rise, gains by individuals haven't been uniform. Many might have been better off adopting a simpler investment strategy.

Economy

Would a corporate tax cut boost productivity in Australia?

As inflation eases, the Albanese government is switching its focus to lifting Australia’s sluggish productivity. Can corporate tax cuts reboot growth - or are we chasing a theory that doesn’t quite work here?

Are V-shaped market recoveries becoming more frequent?

April’s sharp rebound may feel familiar, but are V-shaped recoveries really more common in the post-COVID world? A look at market history suggests otherwise and hints that a common bias might be skewing perceptions.

Investment strategies

Asset allocation in a world of riskier developed markets

Old distinctions between developed and emerging market bonds no longer hold true. At a time where true diversification matters more than ever, this has big ramifications for the way that portfolios should be constructed.

Investment strategies

Top 5 investment reads

As the July school holiday break nears, here are some investment classics to put onto your reading list. The books offer lessons in investment strategy, financial disasters, and mergers and acquisitions.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.