Amid continued economic uncertainty we can expect more companies to downgrade their expectations this reporting season as a result of the slowing growth across many sectors, especially over the past month.
In the first half of 2023, profit margins were still holding up as companies were able to push through their price increases with minimal impact on demand. As the economy softens, and the impact of higher inflation and rising rates takes hold, we expect a softening profile outlook for the second half of 2023.
Retail
The retail sector provides a good barometer to the broader market. We expect many retail companies will provide a trading update within the first six weeks of this financial year. Consumer demand will be the key. If consumers are no longer prepared to pay higher prices for goods and services – which is likely to be the case for many companies in this sector - it will not bode well.
Any insight into foot traffic will also be very important. Despite the prevalence of online shopping options, many retailers still rely on foot traffic. If that is falling, it points to a tough 12 months ahead.
Attention should also be paid to retail inventory levels. Most retailers have managed to lower their inventory significantly over the past six months, but there are a few retailers still holding on to very high inventory. This will negatively impact earnings expectations as we head into an uncertain economic environment because of the possibility of having to write this stock down in six months time.
Another good barometer of the market is the state of consumer staples stocks such as Coles Group (ASX:COL) and Woolworths (ASX:WOW). These companies have performed well to date, but supermarkets need consumer trading to remain strong, which might be a bit of a stretch in the current economic climate. It will also be interesting to see whether they have elevated costs and if so, what they are doing about it.
Resources
Resources companies will report their quarterly results first which means we will hear from them in the next few weeks about their production and capital expenditure. Some will even provide their 2024 outlook.
While commodity prices are holding up, labour shortages and high wages are still a problem. Some resource companies that have had their production impacted by weather events and may be under some pressure. Expected capital expenditure is also likely to be high.
The larger and diversified resource companies will likely remain unscathed but the smaller companies, with just one or two mines or a concentrated geographic area, may be hard hit.
Healthcare
Ordinarily, the healthcare sector provides no surprises – they are a growth leader and run strong business models. But higher labour costs and the lack of labour availability has seen healthcare companies across the board take a hit. A few healthcare companies, including CSL (ASX:CSL), have already downgraded their forecasts. Expect Ramsay Health Care (ASX:RHC) to also be under the spotlight.
Patchy trading conditions means we will see some volatility in healthcare this reporting season. But the impact will likely be short term and investors will be sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy on the dip.
Technology
The tech sector went through its ‘near-death’ experience last year and six months ago it was largely unloved by investors. But over the past six months most of them have realised they need to focus on profitability, or at least on creating a pathway to profitability. Most tech companies have talked about reducing costs to achieve this and it will be more of the same for most tech companies this reporting season. The narrative will be their businesses are continuing to track well, they are finding more cost efficiencies, and they are working out how they can leverage their pricing power.
M&A activity
There are a lot of buying opportunities for companies in the listed market at the moment, particularly when compared to their unlisted peers. Whether it is in the property sector, or in the consumer retail sector, there are plenty of cheap bargains that present fertile ground for M&A activity, especially if companies report a tough result and the share price tumbles.
Over the next six months M&A activity is expected to be quite strong across the listed market. A few companies in the commercial property sector, such as Dexus Property Group (ASX:DXS), are looking incredibly cheap and under pressure.
There are also the likes of A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) and Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE). Both have a very strong balance sheet and continue to be leveraged to what is expected to be a stronger China over the next 12 months. Both companies are also trading at a very cheap multiples and have strong valuation support.
Short-term outlook
The outlook will be soft in the short term and many companies will step away from giving a clear guidance expectation.
This reporting season will see a consensus downgrade for 2024, which is more significant than usual, and is a result of the wide range of potential outcomes for the Australian economy over the next six months.
Long-term outlook
Between six to 18 months, if interest rates stabilise before beginning to head downwards, it will be positive for many of these companies that are about to give downgrades. The challenge is that it is always very hard for the share market to look past a recession, even if it is just a technical one.
What does this mean for investors?
Conditions should improve within 12 months for investors, but earnings forecasts need to be more realistic before the share market can sustainably run higher.
We can expect a rebase of earnings across a lot of sectors. For investors, this presents a buying opportunity to acquire high-quality companies at lower prices.
Jun Bei Liu is Lead Portfolio Manager, Alpha Plus Fund at Tribeca Investment Partners, a specialist investment manager partner of GSFM Funds Management, a sponsor of Firstlinks. The information in this article is provided for informational purposes only. Any opinions expressed in this material reflect, as at the date of publication, the views of Tribeca and should not be relied upon as the basis of your investment decisions.
For more articles and papers from GSFM and partners, click here.