Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 501

Three themes and companies to play China's rise

The structural drivers for China's growth remain intact, and we expect Chinese companies to benefit from trends such as rising incomes and wealth, increasing demand for premium goods and services, and burgeoning sophistication in technology and manufacturing. There will also be opportunities for companies to innovate and move up the value curve. This, coupled with China’s increasing role in global trade, should bode well for exports as well as domestic consumption.

We highlight three examples of long-term themes and companies which are likely beneficiaries.

Industrial automation aims to offset a shrinking workforce

The impact of China’s earlier one-child policy will continue to be felt in the coming decades. Its working age population, or people between 15 and 64, will contract by 22% or 217 million people. To counter the anticipated labour shortages, the government seeks to improve manufacturing through automation and robotics, which means China’s automation market will see strong secular tailwinds. For example, the country set a record of 243,300 industrial robots in 2021, a 44 per cent increase from the previous year.

Shenzhen Inovance is an industrial automation company with leading positions in inverters, servomotors and new energy vehicle (NEV) controllers. It has repeatedly proven its capability in developing new products and entering new markets, where it can compete with multinational peers. As of March 2022, the company has generated 28% per annum shareholder returns since its IPO in 2010, with 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in sales and 35% net profit CAGR*. Despite its size, our view is that Inovance can continue to generate attractive growth over the next 5-10 years as it gains market share and continues to innovate.

Healthcare companies stand to gain market share

Healthcare spending, while much lower than in developed countries, is expected to grow as China’s population ages. The population over 65 will increase from 14% of the total population in 2022 to 30% in 2050.

Shenzhen Mindray is China’s largest domestic medical devices company and a market leader in patient monitors and life support systems. Growth across categories has picked up in recent years, and Mindray’s market position for each category has been improving as well. It has gained market share from global leaders as it expands its presence overseas and has more than 40% of its sales through exports*.

In the domestic market, we expect increased hospital spending on medical equipment to contribute significantly to its revenue. There are also growth opportunities ahead, as the penetration level of medical devices in China is still low and there is a growing preference for import substitutions.

Domestic brands may benefit from premium consumption

Structural growth is expected to return to domestic spending with the recovery of consumer confidence. Amid weaker consumer demand resulting from the pandemic in the last two years, we focused on buying high-quality franchises and market leaders – those companies with above-average margins and returns, and which can increase selling prices.

One sector we looked at was China’s beer market, which is different from most other countries. It is highly consolidated with the top three companies, China Resources Beer (CR Beer), Tsingtao and Anheuser-Busch InBev, sharing 75% of the market as per our research in 2022*. Despite beer volumes declining since 2014, the improving economy and a growing middle class has seen some brands looking to develop more premium products, improving unit economics. Sales and profitability have also improved as beer companies consolidated their breweries.

CR Beer’s share of premium sales has grown with the help from a 2019 merger with Heineken China, resulting in higher average selling prices. Although the company is a state-owned enterprise, China Resources businesses have typically been well run, with returns comparable to private enterprises. Additionally, while investors were worried about higher prices of inputs like aluminium cans, historically beer companies have been able to pass on costs, while the gross profit margin of circa 40% should limit the impact on profits.

Conclusion

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the FSSA China Growth strategy. While China has changed significantly over the last three decades, the key driver of share prices over the long term remains companies’ ability to generate value by growing their earnings or net asset value. Therefore, we use bottom-up analysis and focus on quality companies, with capable leaders who are aligned with shareholders. 

 

*N.B. Source: FSSA Investment Managers, company data retrieved from company annual reports or other such investor reports. Financial metrics and valuations are from FactSet and Bloomberg. As of February 2023 or otherwise noted.

Martin Lau is a Managing Partner and Lead Portfolio Manager at FSSA Investment Managers, based in Hong Kong. FSSA is part of First Sentier Investors, which is a sponsor of Firstlinks. This article is intended for general information only.

For more articles and papers from First Sentier Investors, please click here.

 

4 Comments
Trevor Cheng
March 28, 2023

Need to be more convincing especially given the local corruption and the state ability to step in to keep money in the country.

Warren Bird
March 28, 2023

Martin is one of the most experienced investors in the world in Chinese companies (and other emerging markets), the portfolio manager for one of the most successful funds in that space, and one of the smartest people in the EM field you could ever meet. The funds he manages have always taken governance issues seriously and he would be more aware of the reality of corruption in certain places than anyone else. Full disclosure - I worked alongside Martin when I had oversight of the Asian fixed interest team for Colonial First State from 2005 to 2012. He's one of the most decent people in the industry I've met.

Peter
March 26, 2023

I would never invest in China/Russia or any authoritarian controlled country. These types of governments can change the rules overnight with investors losing their money. I believe Russia has made decisions that investors from "unfriendly countries" will no longer receive dividends and some significant investors such as international airline companies have lost their money entirely or are having difficulty getting it out of the country. Why would you risk your money when these dictators have proven to be unpredictable and untrustworthy.

Harry H
March 26, 2023

The issue with thematic investing is that the themes are normally well known and priced in.

Often it also hides complexities. I've covered Chinese healthcare and it is a minefield of regulation and bureaucratic layers and picking winners and losers is very difficulty.

 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

China in advanced stage of demographic collapse

Is China’s regulatory reform stifling ‘animal spirits’?

China’s new model is a plan for a hostile world

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian house prices close in on world record

Sydney is set to become the world’s most expensive city for housing over the next 12 months, a new report shows. Our other major cities aren’t far behind unless there are major changes to improve housing affordability.

The case for the $3 million super tax

The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.

Tariffs are a smokescreen to Trump's real endgame

Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.

The super tax and the defined benefits scandal

Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Getting rich vs staying rich

Strategies to get rich versus stay rich are markedly different. Here is a look at the five main ways to get rich, including through work, business, investing and luck, as well as those that preserve wealth.

Latest Updates

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Superannuation

The huge cost of super tax concessions

The current net annual cost of superannuation tax subsidies is around $40 billion, growing to more than $110 billion by 2060. These subsidies have always been bad policy, representing a waste of taxpayers' money.

Planning

How to avoid inheritance fights

Inspired by the papal conclave, this explores how families can avoid post-death drama through honest conversations, better planning, and trial runs - so there are no surprises when it really matters.

Superannuation

Super contribution splitting

Super contribution splitting allows couples to divide before-tax contributions to super between spouses, maximizing savings. It’s not for everyone, but in the right circumstances, it can be a smart strategy worth exploring.

Economy

Trump vs Powell: Who will blink first?

The US economy faces an unprecedented clash in leadership styles, but the President and Fed Chair could both take a lesson from the other. Not least because the fiscal and monetary authorities need to work together.

Gold

Credit cuts, rising risks, and the case for gold

Shares trade at steep valuations despite higher risks of a recession. Amid doubts that a 60/40 portfolio can still provide enough protection through times of market stress, gold's record shines bright.

Investment strategies

Buffett acolyte warns passive investors of mediocre future returns

While Chris Bloomstan doesn't have the track record of his hero, it's impressive nonetheless. And he's recently warned that today has uncanny resemblances to the 1990s tech bubble and US returns are likely to be disappointing.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.