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Home / Author: Aaron Minney

Aaron Minney

Understand the retirement income challenge

It’s often assumed one of the primary aims of wealth accumulation is to leave money for the kids, but retirees realise their own longevity means they need to look after their retirement first.

Why 10/30/60 is no longer the rule

The old investment rule that assumed the majority of retirement income would come from late-stage earnings no longer applies when returns are low, placing more importance on early accumulation.

What does the current yield curve tell us?

A range of factors determine interest rates, and the yield curve reflects expectations of the future. Even if interest rates look low, waiting to invest is attempting to outguess the market.

Investor behaviour and lump sum bias

Many factors contribute to a lump sum bias among investors, and it might be one reason why they significantly overestimate how much a lump sum is worth in annual income for life.

The difference between arithmetic and geometric investment returns

The arithmetic mean of the annual returns of the ASX/S&P200 since 1980 is 13.9% per annum, while the geometric mean is 11.6% per annum. This is an annual 2.3% gap. Which returns have you been watching?

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Investment strategies

Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

Investment strategies

21 reasons we’re nearing the end of a secular bull market

Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.

Property

13 million spare bedrooms: Rethinking Australia’s housing shortfall

We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.

Investment strategies

Market entry – dip your toe or jump in all at once?

Lump sum investing usually wins, but it can hurt if markets fall. Using 50 years of Australian data, we reveal when staging your entry protects you, and when it drags on returns. 

Investment strategies

The US$21 trillion question: is AI an opportunity or excess?

It has been years since the US stock market has been so focused on a single driving theme, and AI is unquestionably that theme. This explores what it means for US and global markets in 2026.

Economy

US energy strategy holds lessons for Australia

The US has elevated energy to a national security priority, tying cheap, reliable power to economic strength, AI leadership, and sovereignty. This analyses the new framework and its implications for Australia.

Strategy

Venezuela’s democratic roots are deeper than Trump knows

Most people know Maduro was a dictator and Venezuela has oil. Few grasp the depth of suffering or the country’s democratic history - essential context as the US ousts Maduro and charts Venezuela’s future. 

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