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Tony Dillon

How the election polls got it so wrong

The recent federal election outcome has puzzled many, with Labor's significant win despite a modest primary vote share. Preference flows played a crucial role, highlighting the complexity of forecasting electoral results.

Chalmers' disingenuous budget claims

The Treasurer often touts a $207 billion improvement in Australia's financial position. A deeper look at the numbers reveals something less impressive, caused far more by commodity price surprises than policy.

Preference votes matter

If the recent polls are anything to go by, we are headed for a hung parliament at the upcoming federal election. So more than ever, Australians need to give serious consideration to their preference votes.

Is the Paris Agreement on climate change dead?

The 2015 Paris Agreement is in jeopardy after the withdrawal of the US and Trump announcing plans to bolster fossil fuels production. It has significant implications for the push towards net zero emissions, including for Australia.

Australia is lucky the British were the first 'intruders'

British colonisation's Common Law system contributed to economic prosperity, in contrast to Latin America's lower wealth under Civil Law. It influenced capitalism's success in former British colonies, like Australia.

The changing face of finals footy and the numbers behind it

A well-meaning AFL rule change in 2016 seems to have had unintended consequences. The top teams might cry foul but AFL bosses are unlikely to be too miffed about the outcome.

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Property

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Investment strategies

The Ozempic moment for SaaS

Every investing cycle has its Ozempic moment, a narrative shock so compelling that the market briefly forgets that incumbents can and do adapt to transformative technology like AI.

Superannuation

Meg on SMSFs: Last word on Div 296 for a while

The best way to deal with the incoming Division 296 tax on superannuation is likely doing nothing. Earnings will be taxed regardless of where the money sits, so here are some important considerations.

Investment strategies

If people talk about a bubble, it’s unlikely to crash soon

It is almost impossible to identify a bubble in real time, and history shows they last far longer than we think, giving investors (perhaps misplaced) hope and short-sellers seemingly endless pain before the share price collapses.

Investment strategies

Seismic shifts that could drive private markets

Dealmaking appears to be on the mend, but investors could be well served to look through near-term trends toward six major themes that we think may drive private markets for years to come.

Latest from Morningstar

Corporations are winning the stock market. Here’s a new plan for everyone else

Retail investors have the worst trading record, according to a study of trading performance. Institutional investors weren't at the top either. Here are 6 ways to improve your odds.

Infrastructure

The bull case for Melbourne

A counterpoint to today’s prevailing narrative that Melbourne is the capital of a failing state defined by its strained public finances, COVID hangover and an opposition obsessed with undermining its own credibility.

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