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Warren Bird

What’s that UBS bond benchmark in the annual statements?

There's an interesting history of state and federal government finances and innovative merchant bankers behind the UBS bond index often found in annual statements from fund managers.

Beyond the hype, a beginner’s guide to QE

We read about Quantitative Easing and tapering every day, but what are they and do they work? Should we worry about them? One thing is for sure - both subjects will be with us for many years to come.

An insider's view of the last financial crisis

It's easy to forget how severe the GFC was in destroying confidence and locking up markets. There was a genuine fear that the world was such a toxic place that no credit could be trusted.

Managing credit risk requires healthy dose of cynicism

In the world of credit risk, you need to understand the capacity of the borrower to pay what they’ve promised, then assume that they will let you down anyway and avoid concentrating your portfolio.

Give this risk the credit it deserves

The risk that bond investors should be most concerned about is credit risk. Market risk does not produce a permanent loss of capital, and higher yields result in increasing returns over time.

A fixed interest guy’s take on share market volatility

Simple maths helps explain why the share market is so volatile. It’s not that it’s an irrational, casino-like beast that bucks and dives for no good reason. It’s a long duration market reacting to changes.

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Economy

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Superannuation

No, Division 296 does not tax franking credits twice

Claims that Division 296 double-taxes franking credits misunderstand imputation: franking credits are SMSF income, not company tax, and ensure earnings are taxed once at the correct rate.

Investment strategies

Who will get left holding the banks?

For the first time in decades, the Big 4 banks have real competition in home loans. Macquarie is quickly gain market share, which threatens both the earnings and dividends of the major banks in the years ahead.

Investment strategies

AI economic scenarios: revolutionary growth, or recessionary bubble?

Investor focus is turning increasingly to AI-related risks: is it a bubble about to burst, tipping the US into recession? Or is it the onset of a third industrial revolution? And what would either scenario mean for markets?

Investment strategies

The long-term case for compounders

Cyclical stocks surge in upswings but falter in downturns. Compounders - reliable, scalable, resilient businesses - offer smoother, superior returns over the full investment cycle for patient investors.

Property

AREITs are not as passive as you may think

A-REITs are often viewed as passive rental vehicles, but today’s index tells a different story. Development and funds management now dominate earnings, materially increasing volatility and risk for the sector.

Australia’s quiet dairy boom — and the investment opportunity

Dairy farming offers real asset exposure, steady income and long-term growth, yet remains overlooked by investors seeking diversification beyond traditional asset classes.

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