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Sunday, 17 October 2021
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The gap between property yields and bond yields is known as the ‘risk premium’, the excess yield from investment in commercial property. The high yield spread signals limited downside to commercial property values.
The concept of 'activity-based working', where several people occupy one seat on a particular day, is gone. Businesses will need more space for the same number of people as an offset to the decline in demand.
Retail assets, particularly those focused on discretionary shopping, will continue to underperform and industrial and logistics assets will be the winners for the foreseeable future.
In this 'lower for longer' rate environment, investors are recalibrating expectations of the required return from high-quality real estate, and foreigners are targetting Australia.
Property funds are finding new assets in companies making better capital management decisions by selling their properties and leasing them back. It also gives investors strong long-term returns.
Investors should not assume all property leases are the same, and long WALE funds have the advantages of tenant quality and term, plus look for the highly-desirable 'triple net leases'.
Rather than compare results against APRA's benchmark, large super funds which failed the YFYS performance test are using another measure such as a CPI+ target, with more favourable results to show their members.
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.
Two prominent fund managers with strongly opposing views and techniques. Cathie Wood thinks Tesla is going to US$3,000, Rob Arnott says it's already a bubble at US$750. They debate valuing growth and disruption.
Four key materials are required for battery production as we head towards 30X the number of electric cars. It opens exciting opportunities for Australian companies as the country aims to become a regional hub.
Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.
The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.
At the start of COVID, the Government allowed early access to super, but in a strange twist, others were permitted to leave money in tax-advantaged super for another year. It helped the wealthy and should not be repeated.