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Warren Bird

This 'forgotten' inflation indicator signals better times ahead

Money supply provides an early and good read on whether the cash rate setting is transmitting to accelerating, steady or slowing price pressures. This explores recent data on money supply and what lies ahead for inflation.  

This vital yet "forgotten" indicator of inflation holds good news

Financial commentators seem to have forgotten the leading cause of inflation: growth in the supply of money. Warren Bird explains the link and explores where it suggests inflation is headed.

Coles no longer happy with the status quo

It used to be Down, Down for prices but the new status quo is Down Down for emissions. Until now, the realm of ESG has been mainly fund managers as 'responsible investors', but companies are now pushing credentials.

Bonds yields up, shares up ... or is it shares down?

There's an assumption that bond yields and share prices have a predictable relationship. The positive correlation means that when yields rise due to a strong economy, so should stocks. That's not what happens.

Cut it out ... millionaires are not wealthy

The widespread use of 'millionaire' must stop. Inflation means that the basket of goods and services that cost $1 million in 1960 now requires $15 million. Today, millionaires are not wealthy.

You've worked hard, but are you 'entitled'?

Do people who have worked hard all their lives really have an 'entitlement' to an age pension? Somewhere along the line, has any government made a solemn promise to Australian retirees?

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SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: How wide is the ban on LRBAs?

The government's recent deal with the Greens has put SMSF property borrowing on the chopping block. The change raises tricky questions about timing, exceptions and what SMSFs will still be able to buy.

Shares

Why Australian shares are falling behind the world

Australia’s market boasts a long record of outperformance, but recent results tell a different story. Is the ASX’s lagging performance a temporary setback or evidence that structural forces will keep global markets ahead?

Taxation

The strange effect of the 30% minimum capital gains tax

The 30% minimum tax on capital gains sits at the heart of the budget's proposed reforms. Yet the mechanics reveal anomalies that introduce unexpected distortions that raise questions about its design.

Shares

The next phase of Australian equity leadership

For years, banks have powered Australian sharemarket returns. But changing economic conditions, stretched valuations and global trends suggest the next generation of winners may not be found in familiar domestic sectors.

Economy

Global market growth hinges on Iran War and AI rollout

Global growth is facing mounting pressure from war, higher oil prices, inflation and trade tensions. But a wave of AI-related investment may prove powerful enough to support economic activity and reshape the outlook for markets.

Retirement

The retirees who can't spend

Why do so many retirees pass away with their wealth intact? Conventional wisdom blames pension rules for the reluctance to spend, but a case study from New Zealand shows that the answer may not be as predictable.

Investment strategies

Here’s my investment philosophy. What’s yours?

Investors often hear they need an “investment philosophy,” yet few know what that really means. Beneath the jargon sits a simple idea: a handful of core beliefs that shape every financial decision, for better or worse.

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