Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 181

Keating: is technology capitalism's creator or destroyer?

The Hon. Paul Keating

Paul Keating served as Australia’s 24th Prime Minister, from 1991 to 1996, having been Treasurer between 1983 and 1991. His political legacy includes the deregulation of the financial, product and labour markets and the establishment of compulsory superannuation. Since leaving the Prime Ministership in 1996, Paul Keating has continued his interest in geo-political and economic affairs.

Paul Keating noted it was the largest group of fund managers he had ever spoken to, and they should be charging lower fees on the $2.3 trillion in his superannuation system.

He focussed on the global macro picture. The shattering of US prestige came in 2008 with the GFC. Before then, the world believed Americans had the black box on how to manage the world economy, but China is now bigger than the US if you include the unofficial economy.

Population and GDP will grow together due to technology and capital mobility. The Chinese have about 20% of US income per capita, and we should expect it to reach 50% over next 20 years. Four times as many people earning half as much will give China a GDP size of double the US. Demographics will drive future domination.

The Chinese are now building their own institutions and the IMF has no influence, and the renminbi will become a reserve currency. We are seeing a break from a world previously managed out of Washington.

It matters how the world is managed. Keating thought Trump was weak during his campaign, but he tapped into the “We will not take it anymore” of millions of Americans. Maybe he will be better than we expect, and he’s already said three encouraging things: we need a better relationship with Russia, we need to reach out to China (“Although Trump is slightly wild, the Chinese do not do wild well.”) and he wants to spend on infrastructure.

We are heading into a different world of great power rivalries, not multinationals. It might even work better than pretending we like each other.

The tools used for inflation do not work in a low growth, deflationary world. We used to think markets knew how to allocate funds, and we have lost the great dynamic growth engines of the past such as road building, railways, plastics, etc.

Main reason interest rates are low is because there is no use for savings in the west, not QE. Companies already have too much capacity and excess capital and central banks cannot stimulate activity in such a market. We have capital-light industries like Facebook which don’t need many staff or equipment, unlike the great car companies or manufacturers of the past. It has been a mistake to impose budget restrictions in US which has led to crumbling infrastructure.

But networks and the interconnected economy are the major changes in our lifetime. The entire world is connected, but information erodes value in many companies, and most information is now free. End result? The world’s population will become a big global factory and the price of goods and services will continue to fall.

Can capitalism cope with this change?

Intuitive technologies and artificial intelligence will be massive changes which can take us anywhere. They will change the way the world works. P2P relationships will grow in importance, and the distinction between leisure and work will become more blurred.

Keating left us with this question. Is the digital economy capitalism's great creator or its undertaker?

 

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

5 charts every retiree must see…

Retirement can be daunting for Australians facing financial uncertainty. Understand your goals, longevity challenges, inflation impacts, market risks, and components of retirement income with these crucial charts.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

Super crosses the retirement Rubicon

Australia's superannuation system faces a 'Rubicon' moment, a turning point where the focus is shifting from accumulation phase to retirement readiness, but unfortunately, many funds are not rising to the challenge.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

Why I dislike dividend stocks

If you need income then buying dividend stocks makes perfect sense. But if you don’t then it makes little sense because it’s likely to limit building real wealth. Here’s what you should do instead.

Superannuation

Meg on SMSFs: Indexation of Division 296 tax isn't enough

Labor is reviewing the $3 million super tax's most contentious aspects: lack of indexation and the tax on unrealised gains. Those fighting for change shouldn’t just settle for indexation of the threshold.

Shares

Will ASX dividends rise over the next 12 months?

Market forecasts for ASX dividend yields are at a 30-year low amid fears about the economy and the capacity for banks and resource companies to pay higher dividends. This pessimism seems overdone.

Shares

Expensive market valuations may make sense

World share markets seem toppy at first glance, though digging deeper reveals important nuances. While the top 2% of stocks are pricey, they're also growing faster, and the remaining 98% are inexpensive versus history.

Fixed interest

The end of the strong US dollar cycle

The US dollar’s overvaluation, weaker fundamentals, and crowded positioning point to further downside. Diversifying into non-US equities and emerging market debt may offer opportunities for global investors.

Investment strategies

Today’s case for floating rate notes

Market volatility and uncertainty in 2025 prompt the need for a diversified portfolio. Floating Rate Notes offer stability, income, and protection against interest rate risks, making them a valuable investment option.

Strategy

Breaking down recent footy finals by the numbers

In a first, 2025 saw AFL and NRL minor premiers both go out in straight sets. AFL data suggests the pre-finals bye is weakening the stranglehold of top-4 sides more than ever before.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.